摘要
根据结构状态与运行状态耦合关系,建立考虑故障直接风险和潜在风险的综合风险指标,评估电网灾难性事件。从故障传播数学特征出发,比较本层故障综合风险与下一层故障综合风险指标,将故障传播过程分为累积效应阶段和连锁效应阶段,对各阶段的故障事件进行综合风险排序,更好地评估可能发生的灾难性事故风险。对IEEE-9节点系统和某地区电网进行仿真,结果表明该方法具有更高的完备性和有效性。
For the highly coupled relationship between network topology and operating condition in the physical properties of power grid,a new method based on uncertainty risk assessment theory is proposed.The proposed method takes static direct risk and dynamic potential risk into account to work up the comprehensive risk index.Comparing self-layer comprehensive risk index with next layer comprehensive risk index,the failure propagation process is divided into cumulative effects stage and cascade effects stage.Then,the failure events are sorted by the comprehensive risk index,and it helps the operators and dispatchers to prevent power grid changing from cumulative effects stage to cascade effects stage.The simulation analyses for IEEE-9 bus system and an area grid in Western China have shown that the proposed method is more complete and effective during assessing the dynamic process of power grid catastrophic events.
出处
《四川电力技术》
2011年第4期40-44,共5页
Sichuan Electric Power Technology
关键词
灾难性事件
事故序列
综合风险指标
累积阶段
连锁阶段
catastrophic event
event sequence
integrated risk index
cumulative stage
cascade stage
