摘要
随着风电渗透率的逐步增大,针对风电功率的随机性和间隙性,建立了考虑风速时序性和自相关性的自回归–滑动平均风速预测模型,并结合储能装置在电力系统中的应用情况,采用序贯蒙特卡罗仿真方法,分析评估了风电场、储能装置及燃气轮机备用容量对发输电系统可靠性的影响。将风机和储能装置接入IEEE-RTS79系统进行仿真,综合考虑常规机组的强迫停运率、输电元件的故障率、输电网络线路过负荷等因素,仿真结果表明采用该模型和方法能够量化各种因素对发输电组合系统可靠性的影响。
The penetration of wind power to power grid is gradually increasing. In allusion to the randomness and intermittence of wind power, an autoregressive moving average （ARMA） model for average wind speed prediction, in which both sequentiality and self-correlation are taken into account, is built. Considering the application of energy storage devices in power grid, the influences of wind farms, energy storage devices and reserve capacity of gas turbines on the reliability of power generation and transmission system is analyzed and assessed by sequential Monte-Carlo simulation. To perform the simulation the wind power generators and energy storage device are connected to IEEE-RTS79 system, and during the simulation the factors such as forced outage rate of conventional generating units, failure rate of transmission components and overload of transmission lines and so on are considered. Simulation results show that the proposed model and algorithm can quantize the influences of various factors on the reliability of power generation and transmission system.
出处
《电网技术》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2011年第5期165-170,共6页
Power System Technology
基金
教育部博士点基金项目(20070610109)~~
关键词
风电
储能
序贯蒙特卡罗仿真
发输电系统
可靠性评估
wind power
energy Monte-Carlo simulation
generation and reliability asessment storage
sequential transmission system
