摘要
对陕西省电力消费的因素进行了分解,采用单位根、协整、误差修正模型等多种方法检验了不同因素对陕西省电力消费的影响,并对短期内电力消费的时间趋势做了预测。分析认为,经济增长、经济结构转化,以及能源使用效率的提升对电力消费有明显影响,从长远来看,经济结构的转化仍然是影响电力消费的潜在因素,建设能源节约型社会有待于经济结构的进一步提升。
The influential factors of electric power consumption in Shaanxi Province are decomposed. The unit root test, co-integration analysis and error correcting mode （ECM） are applied to test influences of different factors on electric power consumption in Shaanxi Province, the prediction for time trend of electric power consumption within a short term is given. Based on which, it is pointed out that the economy development, transformation of economic structure and promoting of consumption efficiency are the potential factors on electric power consumption; from the long views, the building of energy economy society depends on further upgrading of economic structure.
出处
《陕西电力》
2008年第1期42-46,共5页
Shanxi Electric Power
关键词
电力消费
影响因素
协整检验
electric power consumption
influential factors
co-integration test
