摘要
针对工程投标多风险因素和决策的复杂性,建立了水电工程投标风险决策综合评估的指标体系。在传统层次分析法基础上,采用三角模糊数来建立判断矩阵,根据置信水平截集和乐观指数,由模糊区间运算得出拟投标的工程项目熵权,根据其大小来选择合适的项目。最后通过一实例对模型进行了应用和检验,并且模拟了不同置信水平和不同风险偏好下的评估结果。
In view of the multi-risk factor and the complexity of the decision-making during project bidding, a comprehensive risk evaluation index system for bidding of hydropower project is put forward. Based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process （AHP）, the method uses triangle fuzzy numbers to establish judgment matrix, and then the entropy weight of the project to be tendered is obtained by fuzzy interval arithmetic in accordance with the confidence level sets and optimistic index; with which the appropriate project can be ＇selected at last. Furthermore, the model is applied and verified through a case study, in which the evaluation results under different confidence levels and various risk appetites are simulated as well.
出处
《水利水电技术》
CSCD
北大核心
2007年第6期84-87,共4页
Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering
关键词
层次分析法
模糊数
水电工程
熵权
投标风险
综合评价
Analytic Hierarchy Process （AHP）
fuzzy number
hydropower project
entropy weight
bidding risk
comprehensive evaluation
