摘要
基于最新的GTAP数据库和中国海关数据,并结合我国现实的财政税收政策,本文构建动态GTAP模型模拟分析了中美贸易摩擦加剧后的政策应对情景。模拟结果表明:中美贸易摩擦对中、美两国经济均产生了一定的负面影响,不利于两国的经济增长、消费、投资和社会福利;中美贸易摩擦可能给中国经济带来中长期的持久负面影响;仅仅下调增值税税率在一定程度上会减少中美贸易摩擦对中国宏观经济的负面影响,但是效果并不显著;而加快技术创新,使得全要素生产率提升可以明显改善中国各宏观经济指标,并使得社会福利得到显著提升。
Based on the latest GTAP database and China Customs data,and combined with China’s actual fiscal and taxation policies,this paper constructs a dynamic GTAP model to simulate and analyze the policy scenarios after the intensification of China-US trade frictions.The simulation results show that China-US trade frictions have a certain negative impact on the economic growth,consumption,investment and social welfare of both China and the United States;China-US trade frictions may have a long-term negative impact on China’s economy;the effect of reducing the negative impact of China-US trade frictions on China’s macro-economy is not significant only by lowering the VAT rate,however,increasing the total factor productivity by speeding up technological innovation can significantly improve China’s macroeconomic indicators and social welfare can be greatly improved.
作者
翟柱玉
娄峰
李富强
赵娜
Zhai Zhuyu;Lou Feng;Li Fuqiang;Zhao Na
出处
《数量经济研究》
2020年第1期1-12,共12页
The Journal of Quantitative Economics
基金
国家社会科学基金重点项目“基于异质性多区域动态CGE模型的间接税归宿与收入分配效应研究”(17AJL014)的资助
