摘要
本文在含有异质性部门国家的全球投入产出模型中进行了双边出口增加值分解理论的重构。运用2018年OECD发布的最新投入产出数据,以中美贸易为对象,对两国双边出口中的增加值进行了精准详细的拆分。结果显示,中国对美国的货物贸易顺差年均高估比例超过50%;中国对美国的服务贸易逆差低估达到服务贸易直接统计逆差额的两倍以上;将服务贸易纳入中美全局贸易平衡统计后,2015年中国对美国的真实贸易顺差收窄27.22%,总顺差额大幅降至1377.15亿美元。此外,数据显示,中国加工贸易部门与非加工贸易部门之间存在紧密的"转运"关系,中国服务贸易竞争力全面落后于美国且竞争力提升缓慢。通过中美之间的真实贸易平衡核算,本文揭示了出口增加值核算理论在贸易统计领域推广的必要性,在中美出口增加值结构比较中发现的差异也对中国的产业升级具有借鉴意义。
The division of production in GVCs and the development of intermediate goods trade make the exports of each country contain a large amount of foreign value added.China is a major exporter of processing trade commodities,due to the large amount of foreign intermediate products in processed trade commodities,China’s processing export commodities greatly exaggerates the bilateral trade imbalance between China and the US.In order to accurately quantify the actual trade balance between China and the United States,it is necessary to replace total exports with domestic added value exports in bilateral trade statistics.At the same time,in order to deeply analyze China’s export industrial structure,it is necessary to divide calculate China’s processing trade sector and non-processing trade sector in the value-added decomposition process.In order to accomplish this task,this paper,for the first time,directly puts a country whose processing trade sector and non-processing trade sector are divided into the global input-output model,and reconstructs the decomposition theory of export value added under the global input-output model.Finally,based on the input-output table released by OECD2018,this paper accurately decomposed the trade between China and the United States into different value added source.The calculation results show that China’s goods trade surplus with the US is overestimated about 50%on average annually,and the overestimated part mainly comes from the processing trade sector,while the underestimated proportion of China’s trade deficit in services with the US is more than twice of the total services trade between China and the US which is calculated by the WTO.In 2015,according to the statistical method of export value added,China’s real trade surplus in goods with the United States was overestimated about MYM112.624 billion relative to the total exports,and China’s services trade deficit with the United States reached about MYM51.515 billion,exceeding the total value of services exports from the US to China in the same year which is calculated by the WTO.After further breaking down the value added in goods export by department.This paper also found that there is a close"transshipment"relationship between China’s processing trade sector and non-processing trade sector.Since 2005,China’s value-added input in non-processing trade sector has accounted for more than 70 percent of value-added input outside the processing trade sector and this proportion has showed a trend of increasing year by year.In addition,by comparing the export of service industries between China and the US,this paper finds that the competitiveness of China’s service trade completely lags behind that of the US.Data shows that the domestic value added rate of China’s service industry exports is 10%lower than that of the US.Moreover,from 2005 to 2015,the domestic value added rate of China’s service industry exports was increased less than 5%,and the improvement speed of China’s service industry competitiveness is much slower than that of the United States.This paper quantifies the real trade balance between China and the US,and takes bilateral trade between China and the US as an example to demonstrate the necessity of promoting the accounting theory of export value added in the field of trade statistics.Through the comparison of the export production structure between China and the United States,as well as the comparison of the proportion of the domestic value added of the export industry between China and the US,the paper found the defect existing in China’s industrial structure.Based on the current situation of Chinese industry,this paper point out the upgrading route that relying on localization of intermediate products for processing manufacturing industry,and also point out the development direction that relying on manufacturing industry to develop high-end service industry for service industry.The research in this paper provides reference data for a correct understanding of the trade balance between China and the US,and also provides data for reference for China’s future industrial upgrading mode and direction of industrial strengthening.The research in this paper has theoretical and practical significance.
作者
李洲
马野青
LI Zhou;MA Ye-qing(Economics School of Nanjing University,Nanjing,Jiangsu,210093,China)
出处
《经济管理》
CSSCI
北大核心
2021年第3期5-25,共21页
Business and Management Journal ( BMJ )
基金
国家自然科学基金项目“基于要素交换与要素创造的大国贸易利益分配:逻辑、动力与测度研究”(72073062)
关键词
全球投入产出模型
双边贸易增加值
加工贸易
服务贸易
global input-output model
bilateral trade value-added
processing trade
service trade
