摘要
特朗普执政给美澳联盟带来一系列改变。政治上双方高层互访相对频繁,联盟指向性更加明显,并在印太秩序构建上增强共识。经济上,美澳在双边和印太框架下的基础设施、能源、资源、太空等多个领域扩大合作,不过两国关于区域经济合作的安排却大相径庭。安全上,美澳军事部署加快,军事演习频繁,军火贸易与军事装备合作深化。在"双边+"方面,美澳与日印等盟国或伙伴的合作不断增加。美澳联盟的新发展呈现出合作领域日益拓展、"双边+"合作不断增加、经济与安全合作分化等特点。美国国内政治和外交政策走向的不确定性以及澳大利亚和其他亚太国家关系的变化、中美战略竞争态势影响了美澳联盟的合作限度。展望未来,美澳联盟的前景存在强化、固守和弱化三种可能,如果美澳两国的战略分歧和利益分化进一步加剧,会导致联盟强化动力衰减,未来美澳联盟合作势头有可能放缓。
Donald Trump’s rising to power brings a series of changes to the U.S.-Australia alliance.Politically,high-level mutual visits between the two sides are more frequent and the alliance becomes more targeted,moreover there is enhanced consensus on the building of Indian-Pacific order.Economically, the U.S.and Australia have expanded cooperation in infrastructure,energy,resources,space and other fields under bilateral and Indo-Pacific frameworks,however the two countries’consideration for regional economic cooperation are quite different.On security,the U.S.and Australia have accelerated military deployment,conducted frequent military exercises,and deepened cooperation in arms trade and military equipment.In terms of"bilateral+",the cooperation between the U.S.,Australia and Japan,India and other Allies or partners has been increasing.The U.S.-Australia alliance presents the characteristics of increasingly expanding and deepening cooperative areas,increasing"bilateral+"cooperation and divergence between economic and security cooperation.The uncertainty of American domestic politics and foreign policy and changes in Australia’s relations with other Asiapacific countries and strategic competition between China and the United States affect the limit of U.S.-Australia alliance strategic cooperation.Looking into the future,there are three possibilities of strengthening,maintaining and weakening the U.S.-Australia alliance.The strategic difference and interest divergence between the two countries lead to declined impetus for the strengthening of the alliance.In the future,the cooperative momentum of U.S.-Australia alliance will graduallyslow down.
作者
凌胜利
寇贺英
Ling Shengli;Kou Heying
出处
《美国问题研究》
2020年第1期21-42,171,共23页
Fudan American Review
关键词
美澳联盟
特朗普政府
地区秩序
印太战略
中美竞争
U. S.-Australia Alliance
Trump Administration
Regional Order
India-Pacific Strategy
Sino-U. S. competition
