摘要
目的分析2005-2016年中国农村地区女性乳腺癌疾病负担及变化趋势,为我国农村地区乳腺癌防治提供基础数据和政策依据。方法基于2005-2016年中国肿瘤登记年报中我国农村地区女性乳腺癌发病例数,计算乳腺癌粗发病率与年龄标准化发病率;采用年度变化百分比(annual percentage change,APC)评价乳腺癌发病率的时间变化趋势;采用Join-point回归进行模型拟合,对各年龄段发病率进行分析;采用灰色系统预测模型对我国农村女性乳腺癌的疾病负担进行短期预测。结果2005-2016年中国农村肿瘤登记地区女性乳腺癌发病总例数为138347例;粗发病率由2005年的15.43/10万上升到2016年的34.79/10万,上升趋势明显(APC=1.88,P<0.01)。中国人口年龄标准化发病率由2005年的1.28/10万上升到2016年的2.50/10万(APC=1.67,P<0.01)。农村地区女性发病率在30岁后开始上升,于45~60岁年龄组达到乳腺癌发病高峰。灰色系统预测模型预测结果显示,女性乳腺癌粗发病率继续上升,预计到2021年全国农村地区女性乳腺癌新发病例约有260962例,发病率达51.19/10万。结论中国农村地区女性乳腺癌发病率上升趋势明显,应积极制定、细化并加强农村地区女性乳腺癌防治相关措施。
Objective To analyze the disease burden and breast cancer trends in rural China from 2005-2016 and to provide basic data and the basis for the prevention and treatment of breast cancer policy in rural China.Methods The crude and age-standardized breast cancer incidences were calculated based on the breast cancer incidence in rural areas of China from 2005-2016.The annual percentage change(APC)was used to determine the temporal trends in the breast cancer incidence.Join point regression was used to fit the model and analyze the incidence among all ages.The Grey model was used to predict the short-term burden of breast cancer in rural females in China.Results The total number of breast cancer cases in rural China between 2005 and 2016 was 138347.The crude incidence rate increased from 15.43/100000 in 2005 to 34.79/100000 in 2016(APC=1.88,P<0.01).The age-standardized incidence rate of the Chinese population increased from 1.28/100000 in 2005 to 2.50/100000 in 2016(APC=1.67,P<0.01).The incidence of breast cancer among females in rural areas started to increase after 30 years of age and peaked in females 45-60 years of age.The Grey system forecasting model prediction showed that the crude incidence of breast cancer continues to rise and it is expected that,by 2021,the breast cancer incidence among females in rural areas of China will reach 51.19/100000,including 260962 new cases.Conclusions Breast cancer incidence among females in rural areas of China is on the rise,and measures related to breast cancer prevention and treatment in rural areas should be actively formulated,refined,and strengthened.
作者
杜汝乐
曹博宇
DU Rule;CAO Boyv(Department of Preventive Medicine,Shihezi University School of Medicine,Shihezi,Xinjiang 832099,China)
出处
《慢性病学杂志》
2023年第2期161-164,共4页
Chronic Pathematology Journal
关键词
女性
农村
乳腺癌
发病率
灰色系统预测模型
Females
Rural
Breast cancer
Morbidity
Grey system forecasting model
