摘要
本文通过手工搜集各地政府公报/政报统计出中国2000~2016年各省市出台的去产能政策数量,并借助上述独特指标分析去产能政策对资本回报率的影响及其机制。研究结果发现:中国去产能政策存在着明显的周期性特征,经济高涨期的去产能政策不断加码,经济低迷期的去产能政策持续宽松;去产能政策显著降低了中国的资本回报率,在更换核心解释变量、工具变量和计量方法后,上述结论依然稳健;金融危机之后,去产能政策的不利影响有所减弱;去产能政策仅降低了西部地区的资本回报率,对东部地区影响不显著;机制分析显示,去产能政策通过强化资本存量的抑制作用和弱化研发投入的促进作用而降低资本回报率。
This paper collects the local government bulletins/political newspapers manually to calculate the number of de-capacity policies issued by Chinese provinces from 2000 to 2016,and analyzes the impact of de-capacity policies on the capital return and its mechanism using above unique indicators.The results show that:de-capacity policies have obvious cyclical characteristics in China,de-capacity policies keep increasing in the period of economic upsurge,while remain loose in the period of economic downturn;de-capacity policies significantly reduce the capital return of China,and this conclusion still holds after replacing the core explanatory variables,instrumental variables and measurement methods;after the financial crisis,the negative impact of de-capacity policies has lessened;the mechanism analysis shows that de-capacity policies reduce the capital return by strengthening the inhibition of capital stock and weakening the promotion effect of R&D investment.
出处
《浙江金融》
2021年第1期26-38,共13页
Zhejiang Finance
基金
浙江省哲学社会科学规划重点课题成果(编号:20NDJC30Z)
浙江省自然科学基金青年项目成果(编号:LQ20G030001)
