摘要
Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) is one of the most economically serious veterinary pathogens due to its negative effects on livestock and its highly infectious nature via a variety of transmission paths through oral and inhalation routes. Measures to enhance outbreak management can be designed according to analytical results predicted by mathematical models for wind-borne dispersion, an important path of virus transmission. Accurate atmospheric dispersion models are useful tools for properly determining risk management plans, while inaccurate models may conversely lead to accidental loss in two possible ways. Overly strict measures, e.g., slaughter for too wide an area, can cause severe economic difficulties, including irreversible loss of business operations for a number of farms. On the contrary, inestimable loss potentially caused by lax controls is a persistent threat. In this paper, available modelling procedures for forecasting the spread of FMDV, which have been used since the 1970s, each having its advantages and limitations, are reviewed for the purpose of ensuring suitable application in various conditions of any future emergency cases.
Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) is one of the most economically serious veterinary pathogens due to its negative effects on livestock and its highly infectious nature via a variety of transmission paths through oral and inhalation routes. Measures to enhance outbreak management can be designed according to analytical results predicted by mathematical models for wind-borne dispersion, an important path of virus transmission. Accurate atmospheric dispersion models are useful tools for properly determining risk management plans, while inaccurate models may conversely lead to accidental loss in two possible ways. Overly strict measures, e.g., slaughter for too wide an area, can cause severe economic difficulties, including irreversible loss of business operations for a number of farms. On the contrary, inestimable loss potentially caused by lax controls is a persistent threat. In this paper, available modelling procedures for forecasting the spread of FMDV, which have been used since the 1970s, each having its advantages and limitations, are reviewed for the purpose of ensuring suitable application in various conditions of any future emergency cases.
