摘要
本文对建国 5 0年来我国的粮食作物单产进行了分析 ,同时用线性、二次、三次和指数方程进行回归拟合 ,根据拟合度高低 ,以三次方程预测了我国未来 30年和 5 0年粮食作物产量 ,并在此基础上结合我国人口增长和耕地下降趋势预测了我国未来 5 0年的人均粮食可能占有量。预测结果表明 ,2 0 30年我国可望实现人均占有粮食 40 0公斤以上的目标。应采取的对策可概括为 :增加粮食生产尤其是农田水利建设投入 ,培育和推广粮食作物高产品种 ,抑制耕地下降 ,控制人口增长 ,节约用粮和适当进口粮食。
In this paper,statistical analysis of the crops yields variation over time from 1949 to 2001 in China were conducted in linear,quadratic,cubic and exponential functions respectively to analyze Chinese food security in the future and explore technical approaches. The results indicated that the cubic equation is the most reasonable model to project food subsistence crops yields in the future. In consideration of Chinese population increase and Chinese dietary structure change,it was predicted that on an average a person may share over 400 kilograms food subsistence in China in 2030 on the bases of above-mentioned prediction of the crops yields in the future. The key countermeasures to ensure food security in China in the future were concluded in six aspects as follows: to keep investment increase of food production,to breed and extend high-yield food subsistence crop variety,to arrest decrease of existing arable land,to control population increase,to stop food waste and to import some food properly
出处
《农业经济问题》
CSSCI
北大核心
2004年第4期16-20,共5页
Issues in Agricultural Economy
基金
欧盟项目"中国农业适应全球化的可持续决策支持" (ICA4-CT -2 0 0 1- 10 0 85 )
