摘要
为探索电动自行车事故中影响电动自行车骑行者伤害程度的因素,选取发生在某市电动自行车与机动车碰撞的事故数据作为研究对象,以电动自行车骑行者伤害程度作为因变量,路段信息、事故信息、电动自行车骑行者信息、机动车辆信息等类别信息作为自变量,运用logistic回归模型,鉴别出12个对电动自行车骑行者伤害程度有显著影响的因素。结果表明:夜间无照明、机动车道、大中型货车、大中型客车、小微型货车、违反信号控制、未按规定让行、年龄大于60、男性等因素能显著增加电动自行车事故中骑行者死亡或重伤的风险。
This paper was aimed at exploring factors affecting injury to electric bicycle riders in an electric bicycle-motor vehicle crash by using data on electric bicycle-motor vehicle crashes.Injury degree to electric bicycle riders was taken as the target variable and 4 kinds of information including road,accident,electric bicycle rider and motor vehicle as independent variables.The logistic regression model was applied to identifying 12 factors which may affect the injury degree significantly.The result shows that9 factors can significantly increase the risk of death or serious injury to electric bicycle riders in crashes,including no lighting at night,motor vehicle lane,heavy trucks,large and medium buses,light trucks,violation of signal control,no avoidance,60+and male.
作者
王卫杰
沈轩霆
王贵彬
方琪璐
WANG Weijie;SHEN Xuanting;WANG Guibin;FANG Qilu(School of Transportation Engineering,Nanjing Tech University,Nanjing Jiangsu 210013,China)
出处
《中国安全科学学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2019年第2期20-25,共6页
China Safety Science Journal
