摘要
为了减少气候灾害造成的损失,提高灾害性气候的预测水平,用非线性预报原理和方法,建立了气候灾害的数学预测模型。首先,用西太平洋海温格点资料,通过相关计算和因子选择,用多项式曲线预测模型,对西太平洋、南海、以及登陆我国(或广东)的热带气旋的年、月频数进行预测试验,经过3年多的实际业务应用,效果良好;其次,使用越赤道气流指数、南支槽指数、高低纬环流指数等资料,根据指数曲线预测模型的原理和方法,制作了广东暴雨过程预报,其业务预报准确率达到70%～90%;并采用指数曲线、周期叠加、韵律等3种预报方法,用权重回归方程进行综合,制作了"逐日、旬、月、季气象要素的短期气候预测系统",对天气转折、气候突变和气象要素的极值有较强的预报能力,特别对降水的时段量级、冷空气影响的时段及强度、热带气旋的影响时段的预报,效果较好,对广东的干旱、寒潮预报也具有一定的参考价值。
To reduce the effect of climatic disaster and improve it′s forecast level ,the nonlinear forecast model of the climatic disaster was set up. First, using the grid point data of seasurface temperature (SST) in West Pacific Ocean and the yearly or monthly frequency data of tropical cyclone, the correlation coefficient between these two data were calculated, and a group of factors were selected. Based on the principle of polynomial curve, the yearly and monthly frequency of tropical cyclone that happened in South China Sea(SCS) and West Pacific Ocean, landed at China or Guangdong Province in China could be forecasted. it is shown that a better operational forecast results in the nearly three years .Second, using the data of crossequatorial flow index, southwest trough index and the circulation index in high and low latitude, and based on the principle of exponent curve, the process of rainstorm could be forecasted, and it′s accuracy is up to 70～90 percent. Using three methods of exponent curve, superposedperiod and rhythm , the weight regression equation was found, and the short term climate prediction system for daily ,decade, monthly, seasonal and yearly meteorological element was also set up and showed a good result in the forecast of weather change, climate abrupt and the extreme value of meteorological element , especially in the time and intensity forecast of rain, cold air ,tropical cyclone. It is also shown that a better forecast of the drought and cold wave can be realized in Guangdong Province.
出处
《自然灾害学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2003年第4期143-149,共7页
Journal of Natural Disasters
基金
国家"九五"重点科技攻关项目(96-908-05-07-01)
