摘要
本文根据需要,提出了不等时距的灰色预测GM(1,1)模型,它克服了等时距GM(1,1)预测模型要求原始数据列连续的缺陷。用提出的模型对碧口水电站右坝肩滑坡体从1982年到1989年(1987年空缺)的实际观测资料进行预测,所得结果与实测值误差均在5 mm以下,并用此模型预测了1990年到2005年三个监测点的水平位移年平均累计值及相应的年均速率,指出了该滑坡体可能滑动的年限,为工程实际提供依据,具有重要的意义。
Based on practice, an unequal intcrval grey forecasting model—GM(1,1) is proposed. It overcomes the disadvantages of equal interval grey model that requires the initial data successive. The actual data of landslide's displacement measured at Bikou power station from 1982 to 1989 (1987 absent) are used to test this new model, and the result shows theoretical values have only a little difference—under 5 mm from actual data. Then, with this new model, we obtained the forecasting values of the annual average accumulative horizontal displacement of these three measured points after 1989, that is from 1990 to 2005, and pointed out the possible sliding time of this landslide. So this new model is proved to be very useful for engineering practice.
出处
《水文地质工程地质》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
1992年第3期8-12,共5页
Hydrogeology & Engineering Geology
