摘要
利用辽东湾JZ20-2海域的海冰现场监测和数值推算资料,确定了海冰的厚度、速度和弯曲强度等海冰参数的概率分布特征;通过构造锥体结构动冰力函数,对该海域锥体平台结构的疲劳冰荷载进行了蒙特卡洛模拟.统计结果表明冰力幅值和冰力周期均符合对数正态分布.为更加合理地确定锥体平台结构的疲劳冰荷载,对冰力幅值和周期进行了联合概率分析.研究成果可用于辽东湾JZ20-2海域锥体平台结构的可靠性设计和疲劳寿命评估。
The probability distributions of ice thickness, ice velocity and flexural strength are determined using the measured and simulated data for the JZ20 - 2 sea area in the Liaodong Gulf. Using dynamic ice-load function of ice-broken cone, the fatigue ice-load of one offshore platform structure with ice-broken cone is simulated with Monte-Carlo method. The statistical results show that the amplitude and period of ice-load both have lognormal distribution. The joint probability distribution of them is analyzed, which is great valuable to construct the fatigue ice-load for offshore platform with ice-broken cone. The present results can be applied to the probability design and cumulative damage analysis for offshore structure with ice-broken cone in the JZ20 - 2 sea area in the Liaodong Gulf.
出处
《海洋学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2003年第2期114-119,共6页
基金
国家自然科学基金
中海石油渤海公司联合资助重点项目资助(59739170)
关键词
冰荷载
结构疲劳
蒙特卡洛模拟
联合概率分布
ice-load
structure fatigue
Monte-Carlo simulation
joint probability distribution.
