摘要
以安徽省为例,运用突变级数法,对资源环境承载能力进行了综合评价;采用TOPIS多目标决策最优方法,对资源环境承载能力最优值进行了测算;基于偏离度模型,构建了预警判别体系;运用灰色GM(1,1)模型,对资源环境承载能力预警演化趋势进行了预测.结果表明:①资源环境承载能力综合指数由2005年的0.386 8提升至2015年的0.873 1,年均增长8.48%;②研究期间,资源环境承载能力偏离度指数处于0.23～1.17之间,均值为0.66,整体处于橙色预警状态;③经济社会若按既有发展模式,至2020年资源环境承载能力偏离度指数将达0.45,预警等级为黄色,生态文明建设与可持续发展将面临较大压力,全面建成小康社会与美丽安徽建设目标将面临较大挑战.
Taking Anhui Province for example,a comprehensive evaluation was made on resource and environment carrying capacity by using catastrophe progression method,and its optimal value was measured by adopting TOPIS multi-objective decision optimal method.The alert discriminant system was constructed based on the deviation model,and the alert evolution trend of resource and environment carrying capacity was predicted by the gray GM(1,1)model.The results suggest that the comprehensive index of resource and environment carrying capacity has increased by 8.48%yearly from 0.386 8 in 2005 to 0.873 1 in 2015;its deviation index is ranged between 0.23 and 1.17 during sample investigation period,of which the average is 0.66,and an orange alert status exists as a whole;if the economical society develops as its original development mode,the deviation index will reach to 0.45 in 2020,indicating yellow alert level.Moreover,the ecological civilization construction and sustainable development will be in a high pressure,bringing agreat challenge to the achievement in the goal of establishing an all-around affluent society and constructing beautiful Anhui Province.
作者
张乐勤
ZHANG Leqin(Resource Environment College,Chizhou University,Anhui Chizhou 247000,China)
出处
《河南大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
2019年第2期161-171,共11页
Journal of Henan University:Natural Science
基金
安徽省2018哲学社会科学规划项目(AHSKY2018D94)
关键词
资源环境
承载能力
预警
突变级数法
TOPIS模型
偏离度
resources and environment
carrying capacity
early warning
catastrophe progression method
TOPIS model
deviation degree
