摘要
中国碳排放权交易市场具有现货交易和履约驱动交易的典型特征,现货碳配额交易价格波动起着价格发现和风险释放双重功能,价格信号会增加控排企业的研发投入、促进绿色创新,风险信号则会增加绿色投资收益的不确定性、不利于绿色创新。在这两种机制共同作用下,碳价波动究竟对控排企业绿色创新产生促进还是抑制作用是一个值得深入探讨的议题。该研究以中国碳排放权交易试点地区控排企业为研究对象,构建门槛效应模型和负二项回归模型研究碳价波动对企业绿色创新的影响效应和微观机制。研究发现:①试点地区碳价波动对控排企业绿色创新的影响存在显著的单一门槛效应,碳价波动的门槛值为1.49。②碳价波动低于门槛值时,对企业绿色创新起促进作用,这一结论经过一系列稳健性检验后依然成立;当碳价波动水平超过门槛值时,对企业绿色创新的促进作用明显减弱,但对控排企业绿色创新是否产生抑制作用仍有待后续研究进一步验证。③机制分析发现,在低于门槛值时,碳价波动以价格发现功能为主,通过形成碳配额市场价格信号,丰富融资渠道,促进控排企业增加研发投入,进而提升企业绿色创新水平。④碳价波动的绿色创新效应因碳排放权交易市场核心机制设计的不同而呈现出显著的异质性,在以工业企业为主导的试点地区,对控排企业绿色创新的促进作用更强。基于以上结论,提出如下政策建议:①加快推进碳期货市场建设,完善碳市场稳定机制。②大力发展绿色金融,丰富企业绿色创新融资渠道。③完善碳配额分配制度,加快建设碳市场价格直接形成机制。
China's carbon market presents the typical feature of spot trading and compliance-driven trading,and the price volatility of spot carbon quota releases price and risk information of emission reduction.Generally,price signals have the potential to drive obligated companies to enhance their R&D input and advance their green innovation.Conversely,risk signals may increase the uncertainty of green investment returns,which is not conducive to green innovation.Under the combined effects of these two mechanisms,the question of whether carbon price volatility promotes or inhibits green innovation in obligated companies is an issue worth addressing.This study focused on obligated companies in China's carbon trading pilots and constructed a threshold effect model and a negative binomial regression model to investigate the impacts and mechanisms of carbon price volatility on green innovation.The results showed that:①There was a significant single threshold effect of carbon price volatility on green innovation for obligated entities in the pilots,with a threshold value of 1.49.②When carbon price volatility was below the threshold,it promoted corporate green innovation,a finding that remained robust after a series of tests.However,when carbon price volatility exceeded the threshold,the positive effect significantly reduced,leading to uncertainty about whether it inhibited green innovation,which warrants further investigation.③Mechanism analysis revealed that,below the threshold,carbon price volatility was primarily driven by the price discovery function,which facilitated the formation of carbon price signals.This process enriched financing channels and increased R&D investment,thereby promoting corporate green innovation.④The positive effects of price volatility on green innovation exhibited significant heterogeneity due to differences in the critical rules of carbon trading schemes,and it had a stronger promoting effect on obligated entities pilot regions led primarily by industrial enterprises.Based on the above conclusions,the following policy recommendations are put forward:①Expedite the establishment of the futures market to enhance the carbon market stabilization mechanism.②Promote the development of green finance and diversify financing channels for corporate green innovation.③Optimize the rules for carbon allowance allocation and establish a mechanism for the direct formation of carbon prices.
作者
李长胜
刘少慧
莫建雷
张艳秋
LI Changsheng;LIU Shaohui;MO Jianlei;ZHANG Yanqiu(Institute of Climate Change and Energy Sustainable Development,Qingdao University of Science and Technology,Qingdao Shandong 266061,China;School of Economics and Management,Qingdao University of Science and Technology,Qingdao Shandong 266061,China;Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research,Institutes of Science and Development,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190,China)
出处
《中国人口·资源与环境》
北大核心
2025年第1期66-76,共11页
China Population,Resources and Environment
基金
山东省自然科学基金青年项目“不同环境规制下山东省制造业绿色发展实现机制研究”(批准号:ZR2022QG084)。
关键词
碳排放权交易
碳价波动
控排企业
绿色创新
价格发现
carbon emission trading
carbon price volatility
obligated entities
green innovation
price discovery
