摘要
随着全球能源结构的深刻变革和环境问题的日益严峻,新兴能源主体如分布式发电、微电网、储能等创新发展,成为实现能源结构升级与实现碳达峰及碳中和目标的关键驱动力。本文通过构建动态CGE模型,深入评估了新兴能源主体创新发展趋势对经济的多维度影响,包括市场角色、电力市场参与、宏观经济效应及环境影响。研究发现,新兴能源主体的增长对经济效益有正面影响,通过提高能源供应的多样性和可靠性,积极促进了电力市场的供需均衡和价格的稳定发展。同时,新兴能源主体的创新发展推动了技术创新和产业升级,尤其是在提高生产效率和降低成本结构方面,对经济增长提供了新的动力。本文综合考虑了生产模块、收入支出模块、市场模块、政策模块以及动态模块,全面模拟新兴能源主体在不同政策情景下对宏观经济、产业结构的综合影响。基于模型的模拟结果,本文提出了政策支持与市场激励、技术创新与产业升级、优化产业结构与市场机制等建议,以促进新兴能源主体的健康发展,实现经济与环境的协调发展。
With the profound changes in the global energy structure and the increasingly severe environmental problems,emerging energy entities such as distributed generation,microgrids,and energy storage have become key driving forces for achieving energy structure upgrading and achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals through innovative development.This article constructs a dynamic CGE model to deeply evaluate the multidimensional impact of innovative development trends of emerging energy entities on the economy,including market roles,electricity market participation,macroeconomic effects,and environmental impacts.Research has found that the growth of emerging energy entities has a positive impact on economic benefits.By improving the diversity and reliability of energy supply,it actively promotes the balance of supply and demand in the electricity market and the stable development of prices.At the same time,the innovative development of emerging energy entities has promoted technological innovation and industrial upgrading,especially in improving production efficiency and reducing cost structure,providing new impetus for economic growth.This article comprehensively considers the production module,income and expenditure module,market module,policy module,and dynamic module,and comprehensively simulates the comprehensive impact of emerging energy entities on macroeconomic and industrial structure under different policy scenarios.Based on the simulation results of the model,this article proposes suggestions for policy support and market incentives,technological innovation and industrial upgrading,optimizing industrial structure and market mechanisms,etc.,to promote the healthy development of emerging energy entities and achieve coordinated development.
作者
董健
郭尚民
赵竞智
郝颖
Dong Jian;Guo Shangmin;Zhao Jingzhi;Hao Ying(Economic and Technological Research Institute,State Grid Liaoning Electric Power Supply Co.,Ltd.,Shenyang 110013,China;School of Economic and Business Administration,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China)
出处
《工业技术经济》
北大核心
2025年第3期91-100,共10页
Journal of Industrial Technology and Economy
基金
国网辽宁省电力有限公司经济技术研究院科技项目“新兴主体发展趋势下的输配电价机制创新研究”。
关键词
新兴能源主体
新型电力系统
经济效益
动态CGE模型
协调效应
电力市场
技术创新
产业升级
emerging energy entities
new power system
economic performance
Dynamic CGE model
coordination effect
electricity market
technological innovation
industrial upgrading
