摘要
气候变化对物种的地理分布格局有重要驱动作用,全球气候变化和人类活动的干扰已经严重威胁到福建柏(Chamaecyparis hodginsii)的生存环境,野生资源日渐稀少,预测了末次间冰期以来福建柏地理分布格局变迁历史,探讨环境因子对其潜在分布的影响机制,为福建柏的资源保护和可持续经营提供科学依据。基于福建柏的160个现代分布点信息和10个环境因子,利用MaxEnt模型并结合ArcGIS软件,预测福建柏在过去、现代和未来不同气候情景下的潜在适生区,并利用贡献率和置换重要值分析环境因子对其地理分布的影响机制。结果显示:(1)福建柏当代高度适生分布区主要位于浙江南部、福建、湘赣交界处、湘粤接壤处以及湘桂交界处等;(2)未来4种气候变化情景下,福建柏总适宜分布区较当代分布范围呈收缩趋势,但其高度适生区分布面积除2090s⁃SSP126外,较当前时期均表现出扩增趋势;(3)平均昼夜温差(bio2)、最干月降水量(bio14)、最暖季度降水量(bio18)、海拔(elev)、最冷月最低气温(bio6)是制约福建柏地理分布变迁的关键因子。
Climate change has an important driving effect on the geographical distribution pattern of species.Global climate change and human activities have seriously threatened the living environment of Chamaecyparis hodginsii,and its wild resources are increasingly scarce.This study predicted the history of the geographical distribution pattern of Chamaecyparis hodginsii since the last interglacial period,and explored the influence mechanism of environmental factors on its potential distribution,so as to provide scientific basis for the resource protection and sustainable management of Chamaecyparis hodginsii.Based on 160 modern distribution sites of Chamaecyparis hodginsii and 10 environmental factors,MaxEnt model and ArcGIS software were used to predict the potential habitat of Chamaecyparis hodginsii under different climatic scenarios in the past,modern and future,and the influence mechanism of environmental factors on its geographical distribution were analyzed using contribution rate and permutation importance.The results showed that:(1)The current highly suitable distribution areas of Chamaecyparis hodginsii were mainly located in southern Zhejiang,Fujian,the junction of Hunan and Jiangxi,the junction of Hunan and Guangdong,and the junction of Hunan and Guangxi.(2)Under the four future climate change scenarios,the total suitable distribution area of Chamaecyparis hodginsii showed a shrinking trend compared with the contemporary distribution range,but its highly suitable distribution area showed an increasing trend compared with the current period except for 2090s⁃SSP126.(3)The mean diurnal range(bio2),the precipitation of driest month(bio14),the precipitation of warmest quarter(bio18),elevation(elev),and the min temperature of coldest month(bio6)were the key factors that restricted the geographical distribution of Chamaecyparis hodginsii.
作者
翁慧莹
刘益鹏
杨黔越
叶兴状
毕远洋
张国防
陈世品
刘宝
WENG Huiying;LIU Yipeng;YANG Qianyue;YE Xingzhuang;BI Yuanyang;ZHANG Guofang;CHEN Shipin;LIU Bao(Forestry College,Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University,Fuzhou 350002,China;Administration of Xiaoxi National Reserve of Hunan,Tujia-Miao Autonomous Prefecture of Xiangxi 416000,China;College of Landscape Architecture and Art,Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University,Fuzhou 350002,China)
出处
《生态学报》
北大核心
2025年第1期137-146,共10页
Acta Ecologica Sinica
基金
国家林业局科技项目(KJZXSA2018008)
第二次全国重点保护野生植物资源调查与研究(KH140126A)。
