摘要
文章利用呼伦贝尔市16个国家级气象站1970—2021年52年逐月降水观测资料,采用经验证交函数(EOF)、转动主分量分析(REOF)、小波分析等方法,分析呼伦贝尔市年降水量时空变化特征。结果表明:呼伦贝尔市年降水量场存在2种模态,分为4种表现类型:分别为全市降水偏多型;全市降水偏少型;东南部降水偏多、西北部降水偏少型和东南部降水偏少、西北部降水偏多型。利用REOF方法将呼伦贝尔地区年平均降水场分为东、西两个区域(简称A区、B区)。A区年降水存在5~8 a的年际变化周期,以及50~55 a的年代际变化周期,在52年时间尺度下,预测2030年开始降水将处于偏少时期。B区年降水存在12~13、23~27 a和46~56 a 3个年代际变化周期,在51年时间尺度下,预测2029年开始降水将处于偏少时期。
Based on the monthly precipitation data of 16 national meteorological observing stations in Hulun Buir from 1970 to 2021,the spatial and temporal characteristics of annual precipitation in Hulun Buir were studied by methods such as empirical orthogonal function(EOF),rotated empirical orthogonal function(REOF),and wavelet analysis.The results showed that there were two modes of annual precipitation in Hulun Buir,which could be divided into four types:excessive precipitation across the entire city,deficient precipitation across the entire city,excessive precipitation in the southeast and deficient precipitation in the northwest,deficient precipitation in the southeast and excessive precipitation in the northwest.The annual mean precipitation field in Hulun Buir region was divided into two regions(A and B)by using REOF method.The precipitation in region A had an interannual variability cycle of 5 to 8 years and an interdecadal variability cycle of 50 to 55 years.It was predicted that the precipitation would be in a period of deficiency starting from 2030 on a 52-year timescale.The precipitation in region B had three interdecadal variability cycles:12 to 13 years,23 to 27 years,and 46 to 56 years.It was predicted that the precipitation would be in a period of deficiency starting from 2029 on a 51-year timescale.
作者
纪成成
常煜
Ji Chengcheng;Chang Yu(Genhe Meterological Bureau of Inner Mongolia,Genhe 022350,China;Hulun Buir Meterological Bureau of Inner Mongolia,Hulun Buir 021008,China)
出处
《内蒙古气象》
2024年第6期28-34,共7页
Meteorology Journal of Inner Mongolia
