摘要
高速公路用能需求与能源供给的不适配,会造成了交通系统运行效率低、不稳定,以及可再生能源自然禀赋难消纳等问题。为此,考虑智能化设施与新能源汽车普及的影响,分析高速公路发展水平与自洽能源系统的相互影响关系,构建高速公路自洽能源系统动态演化的系统动力学(system dynamics,SD)模型,并筛选出节能增效、负荷匹配、高效通行、灵活调度、自然禀赋匹配5个方面的15个定量指标,构建高速公路发展水平与自洽能源系统的适配性评估指标体系;根据SD模型的评价指标影响因素分析提出了熵值法的改进策略,并对指标权重赋权方法的兼容性与区分性进行验证,检验了该赋权方法和改进策略的有效性。然后基于层次分析法以及TOPSIS的综合评估方法计算适配性评估指标权重,并以适配性评估模型为目标函数,自洽率、负荷匹配与基础设施稳定运行为约束条件,提出了基础设施能耗优化模型;最后基于SD模型模拟的高速公路交能融合场景开展案例分析,对高速公路发展水平与自洽能源系统适配性评估方法以及优化模型进行验证。研究结果表明:该方法可以针对考虑智能化设施与新能源汽车的高速公路发展水平与自洽能源系统的适配性情况进行推演与评价,与实际情况相符。通过对关键指标的优化,将供电裕度提高了34%,充电桩利用效率上升了49.2%,自洽率增长了64%,适配性综合得分提升了75%。
Inconsistency between energy demand and energy supply of highways leads to issues such as low and unstable operational efficiency of the transportation system and challenges in accommodating natural endowments of renewable energies.Therefore,the mutual influences between the development levels of highways and self-consistent energy systems are analyzed,with the consideration of intelligent facilities and new energy vehicles.A simulation model for dynamic evolution of highway transportation and its energy systems based on system dynamics(SD)is built.A set of evaluation indicators for evaluating the consistency level between the development level of highways and self-consistent energy systems are proposed.The indicators consist 15 quantitative parameters covering 5 aspects including energy-saving and efficiency-enhancing,load-demand matching,efficient transportation,flexible resource dispatching,and natural endowments matching.An improvement strategy for calculating weighting parameters of the evaluation indicators based on the influencing factors analyzed in the SD model is proposed,and the effectiveness of the improved weighting method is examined considering its compatibility and discrimination.An integrated evaluation method combining analytic hierarchy process(AHP),improved entropy evaluation and TOPSIS is used to calculate the weights of the evaluation indicators.And then an energy consumption optimization model for transportation infrastructure is established with the consistency evaluation model as the objective function,considering constraints of rate of self-consistent,load-demand matching and stable operation of infrastructures.Finally,a smart highway scenario based on the SD model is used as a case study to verify and analyze the evaluation method and optimization model.The results demonstrate that the proposed method can predict or evaluate the consistency between Self-consistent energy systems and highway development levels considering the integration of intelligent facilities and new energy vehicles and the evaluation results agree with the actual situation.Besides,optimization of key indicators using the optimization model demonstrates that the power supply margin could be increased by 34%,the utilization efficiency of charging stations could be improved by 49.2%,the self-consistency rate could be increased by 64%,and the comprehensive consistency score could be improved by 75%.
作者
何康
刘少博
沈官威
吕天泽
潘晓锋
HE Kang;LIU Shaobo;SHEN Guanwei;LYU Tianze;PAN Xiaofeng(Intelligent Transportation Systems Research Center,Wuhan University of Technology,Wuhan 430063,China;Engineering Research Center of Transportation Information and Safety of Ministry of Education,Wuhan University of Technology,Wuhan 430063,China)
出处
《交通信息与安全》
CSCD
北大核心
2024年第5期83-98,共16页
Journal of Transport Information and Safety
基金
国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFB2601300)资助。
关键词
交通规划与管理
交通能源系统
适配性评估
综合评估
系统动力学模型
交通智能化
transportation planning and management
transportation energy system
consistency evaluation
comprehensive evaluation
system dynamics model
intelligent transportation
