摘要
基于多源遥感数据、统计年鉴数据、NPP-VIIRS(NPOESS preparatory project-visible infrared imaging radiometer)夜光数据以及土地利用等数据,对湖南省的高温灾害进行空间分析,从而更准确地揭示其对人口、社会经济、农业等方面的影响。以湖南省2015—2020年的历史气象、地理信息等数据为基础,综合运用致灾因子、孕灾环境、承灾体、抗灾减灾能力等要素,构建高温灾害风险评估模型。结果表明:①利用多元线性回归模型对GDP进行空间分配,并完成线性校正后的结果与统计值的偏差为2.73%;②孕灾环境因素中,在远离河流以及人口稠密的平原区,更易出现高温灾害;③湖南省从南到北的高温危险度呈“高-低-高”的趋势,其中高危险度区集中在湖南省东北部以及岳阳市的北部,次高危险度区集中在湖南北部以及长沙部分地区。
Based on multi-source remote sensing data,statistical yearbook data,NPP-VIIRS(NPOESS preparatory project-visible infrared imaging radiometer)night light data and land use data,the spatial analysis of high temperature disasters in Hunan Province was carried out to reveal its impact on population,social economy and agriculture more accurately.Based on the historical meteorological and geographic information data of Hunan Province from 2015 to 2020,a high-temperature disaster risk assessment model based on four elements was constructed by comprehensively using four elements:disaster-causing factors,sensitivity of disaster-pregnant environment,vulnerability of disaster-bearing bodies,and disaster-bearing body s ability to resist and mitigate disasters.The risk assessment model of high temperature disaster based on four elements was constructed by comprehensively using four elements:meteorological elements,disaster-pregnant environment elements,vulnerability elements of disaster-bearing bodies and resilience elements of disaster-bearing bodies.The results show these as follows.Using the multiple linear regression model,the spatial distribution of GDP is carried out,and the linear correction is carried out,and the deviation between the results and the statistical value is 2.73%.Through the analysis of disaster-inducing environmental factors,it can be seen that high temperature disasters are more likely to occur in densely populated plain areas away from rivers.The risk of high temperature in Hunan Province from south to north presents a trend of“high-low-high”,in which the high risk area is concentrated in the northeast of Hunan Province,that is,the north of Yueyang,and the second high risk area is concentrated in the north of Hunan Province and parts of Changsha.
作者
王金虎
王钰尧
王宇豪
WANG Jin-hu;WANG Yu-yao;WANG Yu-hao(College of Emergency Management,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing 210044,China;Key Laboratory of Middle Atmosphere and Global Environment Observation,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029,China;Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing 210044,China;Nanjing Xinda Institute of Safety and Emergency Management,Nanjing 210044,China;Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing 210044,China;College of Atmospheric Physics,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing 210044,China)
出处
《科学技术与工程》
北大核心
2024年第35期14958-14967,共10页
Science Technology and Engineering
基金
国家自然科学基金(41905026)
江苏省自然科学基金(BK20170945)
南京信息工程大学人才启动基金(2016r028)
中国博士后科学基金第63批面上课题(2018M631554)
江苏省高等教育教改立项研究课题(2023JSJG330)
江苏省333高层次人才培养工程资助项目((2022)3-16-375)。
关键词
高温灾害
承灾体
空间化
风险评估
湖南省
heat wave
disaster exposure
spatialization
risk assessment
Hunan Province
