摘要
鉴于连锁溃决风险的传导是梯级水库群风险分析的关键问题,建立梯级水库风险传导的系统动力学模型,揭示连锁溃坝事件的演变规律和风险传导机制;此外,基于洪水关联性分析,提出了梯级水库风险传导量化模型,以全面、快速地评估水库的防洪能力和风险传导效应;并以大渡河流域三级水库实例验证了该模型的适用性和合理性。研究表明,系统动力学模型能够刻画风险在时间和空间上的传导反馈机制;薄弱梯级的风险传导系数最大,风险承担能力最低;风险承担和截断能力与水库调洪库容和水库的下泄能力呈正相关;区间洪水叠加导致风险传导系数增大,放大风险的传递,连续溃决风险率增大。
The transmission of chain dam break risk is the key problem of cascade reservoir group risk analysis.A system dynamic model of cascade reservoir risk transmission was established to reveal the evolution law and risk trans-mission mechanism of chain dam break events.In addition,based on flood correlation analysis,a quantitative risk trans-mission model of cascade reservoir was proposed to comprehensively and quickly evaluate the flood control capacity and risk transmission effect of reservoir.Finally,the applicability and rationality of this study were illustrated by three-stage cascaded reservoirs in Dadu River Basin.The results show that the system dynamics model can describe the feedback mechanism of risk conduction in time and space.The weak engineering has the highest risk transmission coefficient and the lowest risk bearing capacity.Risk bearing and blocking capacity are positively correlated with flood control and dis-charge capacity of reservoir.The intersectional flood superposition increases the risk transmission coefficient,amplifies the risk transmission,and increases the probability of chain dam break.
作者
孙蕊蕊
依明江·热合曼
费凯旋
王冕
焦顶
SUN Rui-rui;YIMINGJIANG Reheman;FEI Kai-xuan;WANG Mian;JIAO Ding(Faculty of Architecture,Civil and Transportation Engineering,Beijing University of Technology,Beijing 100124,China)
出处
《水电能源科学》
北大核心
2024年第12期190-194,共5页
Water Resources and Power
基金
国家自然科学基金青年基金项目(52309148)
国家自然科学基金重大项目(52192671)。
关键词
梯级水库
连锁溃决
风险传导
系统动力学
量化模型
cascade reservoir
chain dam break
risk transmission
system dynamics
quantitative mode
