摘要
In the Turkish Economy,with the policies of opening up to the outside world and transition to a free market economy in the 1980s,there have been radical changes in the structure of the economy and the prices of all goods and services have begun to be determined by the market under market conditions.In the 1980s,which can be called the transition process to a free market economy and open economy,on the one hand,efforts were made to privatize state institutions in order to withdraw the state from economic life and to ensure that the prices of goods and services were determined under free market conditions,while on the other hand,efforts were made to grant freedom to foreign trade.While these two main issues were being realized,the import substitution industrialization strategy was abandoned and an export-based growth model was started to be implemented.The last step of this opening up and liberalization process was realized with the decision numbered 32 in 1989.With the liberalization of capital movements in the 1990s,we can say that economic growth and development was attempted to be achieved through hot money inflows rather than direct foreign investments.This orientation made the economy more vulnerable to crises,and for the first time,a crisis occurred in the form of the 1994 economic crisis,which was understood to be caused by hot money.The 1994 economic crisis was attempted to be overcome by providing state guarantees for bank deposits and applying high interest rates.Thus,it is noteworthy that high inflation was experienced in the period leading up to the 2001 economic crisis.Indeed,while the increase in the wholesale price index rarely remained below 30%on an annual basis between 1980 and 1990,increases of 50%and 60%began to be seen.However,the period between 1990 and 2000 was a period in which higher inflation rates were encountered.As a result of the environment created in the 1990s,we can say that the financial crisis experienced in 2001 deepened into an economic crisis and that this crisis had economic and political effects.Although there have been many economic crises in the history of the Republic,this crisis is considered to be the most deeply effective.While the crisis was overcome with the stand-by agreement made by the IMF and the announced Transition to a Strong Economy program,the economy began to grow rapidly with the ease of use of foreign resources,and the existence of political stability seems to have ensured that this economic growth process continued uninterruptedly except for 2009.A decrease was also experienced in inflation rates.After 2015,inflation rates began to rise again,and although negative economic growth rates were experienced between the 3rd quarter of 2018 and the 3rd quarter of 2019 during the exchange rate shock period in 2018,we can say that this was not effective enough to turn annual average growth rates into negatives.The exchange rate shock experienced in November 2021 both caused changes in economic policies and the adoption of new policies,and seems to have led to an economic crisis wave caused by the large increase in inflation rates.Within this framework,a post-Keynesian policy of combating inflation has been implemented,and with the new economic policies announced in June 2023,the Central Bank has gradually increased policy interest rates and started to implement tight monetary policy in cooperation with the Ministry of Treasury and Finance,and we can say that a new phase has been entered in the post-Keynesian policy of combating inflation.However,in our opinion,it is necessary to determine well where inflation originates from and what ensures its continuation.In this context,Turkey’s inflation problem will be analyzed by utilizing the views of post-Keynesians on inflation and the profit-push inflation approach.
