摘要
土地利用格局变化及未来发展情景对省域土地合理规划和生物多样性保护具有重要意义。以东部典型区域浙江省为例,根据浙江省2013和2018年两期精度500 m×500 m土地利用数据、浙江省陆地国家公园、国家级自然保护区数据,分别设置了土地利用结构和经济社会发展速率维持现状的情景、自然保护地体系建立情景和城市扩张情景。选取高程、坡度、人口等11种影响因素作为驱动因子,采用CLUE-S模型拟合浙江省2018年的土地利用覆被格局并判断拟合精度,进而模拟出三种情景下研究区2030年的土地利用格局演变。结果表明:1)Logistic二元回归分析结果ROC值均大于0.699,表明所选驱动因子对土地利用类型的解释能力较为准确。2)Kappa系数高达0.9460,表明模型能够准确的模拟浙江省土地利用分布格局;3)与2018年浙江省土地利用情况相比,2030年在不同情景下土地利用面积与空间分布均发生了一定的变化,土地利用结构和经济社会发展维持现状情景下建设用地持续扩张,建设用地面积增加16575 hm^(2),显著增加的区域主要位于杭州市郊和温州市郊。自然保护地体系建立情景下,林地、水域分别增加了15625、1600 hm^(2),耕地、草地和建设用地分别减少了1550、1700和13975 hm^(2),空间上都呈现均匀变化。城市扩张情景下,建设用地面积迅速增加145800 hm^(2),增加部分多数位于原有建设用地的外围。三种情景对比下,自然保护地体系建立情景是浙江省2030年最适宜的土地利用土地覆被格局。2030年浙江省在自然保护地体系建立情景下生态空间的面积最大,为6741925 hm^(2),年均增加速度为0.0192%。
The change of land use pattern and its future development scenarios are of great significance to land planning and biodiversity conservation in the provincial area.This article took Zhejiang Province as an example,based on the land use data with the precision of 500 m×500 m in 2013 and 2018,the data of National Park in Zhejiang Province on land,and the data of National Nature Reserves,to set up the scenario of which land-use structure and economic and social development rates maintain the status quo,the scenario of the establishment of the natural protected area system,and the scenario of urban expansion.Eleven influencing factors,such as DEM,slope,and population,were selected as driving factors.The land use and cover pattern of Zhejiang Province in 2018 were fitted by the CLUE-S model and the fitting accuracy was evaluated.Then,the evolution of land use and cover pattern in the study area in 2030 are simulated under three scenarios.The results indicated that 1)Logistic binary regression analysis showed that ROC values were all higher than 0.699,showing that the selected driving factors could explain the land use type accurately.2)Kappa coefficient was as high as 0.9460,showing that the model could accurately simulate the distribution pattern of land use in Zhejiang Province.3)Compared with the situation of land use in Zhejiang Province in 2018,the area and spatial distribution of land use in 2030 under different scenarios will change to a certain extent.Under the scenario of which land-use structure and economic and social development rates maintained the status quo,the area of construction land increased by 16575 hectares;the areas with significant increase were mainly located in the suburbs of Hangzhou and Wenzhou.Under the scenario of the establishment of the natural protected area system,forestland and water area increased 15625 and 1600 hectares,respectively.Cropland,grassland,and construction land were reduced by 1550,1700 and 13975 hectares respectively.All of them showed a uniform change in space.Under the scenario of urban expansion,the area of construction land increased rapidly by 145800 hectares,with most of the increase located on the periphery of the original construction land.Under the three scenarios,the scenario of the establishment of the natural protected area system will be the most suitable land use and land cover pattern in Zhejiang Province in 2030.The area of natural habitats in Zhejiang Province under the scenario of establishing natural protected areas in 2030 will be the largest,with an average annual increase rate of 0.0192%,which will be 6741925 hectares.
作者
王萍
林乐乐
彭杨靖
黄治昊
宋超
张童
崔国发
WANG Ping;LIN Lele;PENG Yangjing;HUANG Zhihao;SONG Chao;ZHANG Tong;CUI Guofa(General Water of China Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 100022,China;School of Ecology and Nature Conservation,Beijing Forestry University,Beijing 100083,China)
出处
《生态科学》
CSCD
北大核心
2024年第3期196-206,共11页
Ecological Science
基金
国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFC0507200)。
