摘要
兰坪县位于云南省西北部,地质环境不良,近年来该地区受降雨影响泥石流灾害频发,但是该地区缺乏较为精确的灾害风险评价。为对该地区泥石流灾害进行防范预警,文章应用FLO-2D软件对兰坪县啦井村1#典型泥石流河灾害进行动力过程反演分析,基于反演所得模拟参数对2#沟在20年、50年和100年三种降雨重现期工况进行预测分析和灾害风险评价。结果表明:啦井村2#沟道泥石流淤积深度和最大流速随降雨强度的增大呈增加趋势,极端降雨条件下沟道底部淤积深度将超过2.5 m,流通区最大流速将大于5 m/s,泥石流携带更多的松散物于堆积区堆积,易造成安全隐患;啦井村2#沟中高风险区主要分布在沟道中流速泥深较大、沟道周围民房较为集中位置以及泥石流堆积区域。研究结果可为该地区防灾减灾工程与泥石流早期预警等研究提供一定参考。
Lanping County,located in the northwestern part of Yunnan Province,is characterized by unfavorable geological conditions.In recent years,debris flow disasters have frequently occurred in this area due to the influence of rainfall,yet there is a lack of accurate disaster risk evaluations.To enhance early warning preparedness for debris flow disasters in the region,the FLO-2D model was employed to perform an inverse analysis of a historical debris flow event in Lajing Village,Lanping County.Based on the parameters obtained from this analysis,predictions of the dynamic characteristics and risk assessments were conducted for another debris flow-prone gully under three rainfall recurrence period conditions:20,50 and 100 years.The results indicate that in Gully No.2 of Lajing Village,the siltation depth and maximum flow velocity of debris flow increase with the intensification of rainfall.Under extreme rainfall conditions,the siltation depth at the trench bottom is expected to exceed 2.5 m,and the maximum flow velocity in the transportation zone may exceed 5 m/s,leading to the accumulation of more loose materials in the deposition area and creating significant safety hazards.The high-risk zones in gully No.2 are primarily located in areas with high flow velocity and mud depth,around densely populated residential areas near the gully,and within the debris flow accumulation zone.The findings of this study provide valuable references for disaster prevention and mitigation engineering,as well as for early warning systems in the region.
作者
赵蔓
孙俊
朱恺悦
ZHAO Man;SUN Jun;ZHU Kaiyue(Guizhou Geological and Mineral Foundation Engineering Co.Ltd.,Guiyang,Guizhou 550000,China;State Key Laboratory of Ocean Engineering,Shanghai Jiao Tong University,Shanghai 200240,China)
出处
《中国地质灾害与防治学报》
CSCD
2024年第5期110-119,共10页
The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control
