摘要
甘肃省河西内陆河流域水资源极其短缺,流域内中西部和东部水系出山径流变化存在一定差异,研究出山径流量的变化情况及不同因素的贡献率,对保障区域水资源可持续开发利用具有重要意义。基于1956-2021年出山径流及主要产流区降水、气温资料,采用多种趋势和突变检验法、累积量斜率变化率法,结合径流补给特征,解析三大水系出山径流变化及其对降水、气温变化的响应情况,结果表明:(1)石羊河水系多年平均出山径流量13.60亿m^(3),历年呈不显著减少趋势,降水呈不显著增加趋势,气温显著升高使蒸发量增加,致使径流呈减少趋势;(2)黑河水系多年平均出山径流量由突变点2006年前的30.62亿m^(3)增加为突变点后的35.60亿m^(3),降水对径流变化的贡献率为16.7%,气温显著升高,对径流变化的影响增强;(3)疏勒河水系多年平均出山径流量由突变点1998年前的14.22亿m^(3)增加为突变点后的17.93亿m^(3),降水和气温对径流变化的影响相当,贡献率分别为30.4%、30.2%。河西内陆河三大水系径流补给特征、气候条件存在一定差异,致使径流对不同驱动因素的响应情况也不一致。
The inland river basin in Hexi,Gansu Province,is extremely short of water resources.There are certain differences in the changes of mountain runoff between the central and western and eastern water systems in the basin.Studying the changes in mountain runoff and the contribution rates of different factors is of great significance for ensuring the sustainable development and utilization of regional water resources.Based on the data of mountain runoff and precipitation and temperature in the main runoff producing areas from 1956 to 2021,various trends and mutation tests,cumulative slope change rate methods,and combined with the characteristics of runoff supply,the changes in mountain runoff and their responses to changes in precipitation and temperature in the three major water systems were analyzed.The results show that:①the average annual mountain runoff of the Shiyang River system was 1.36 billion m^(3),showing a non-significant decreasing trend over the years and a non-significant increasing trend in precipitation,The significant increase in temperature leads to an increase in evaporation,resulting in a decrease in runoff;②The average annual runoff from the Heihe River system has increased from 3.062 billion m^(3) before the mutation point in 2006 to 3.56 billion m^(3) after the mutation point.The contribution rate of precipitation to runoff changes is 16.7%,and the temperature has significantly increased,enhancing the impact on runoff changes;③The average annual runoff from the Shule River system has increased from 1.422 billion m^(3) before the mutation point in 1998 to 17.93 m^(3) after the mutation point.The impact of precipitation and temperature on runoff changes is similar,with contribution rates of 30.4%and 30.2%,respectively.There are certain differences in runoff supply characteristics and climate conditions among the three major inland river systems in Hexi,resulting in inconsistent responses of runoff to different driving factors.
作者
陈吉平
牛最荣
黄维东
朱咏
王启优
CHEN Ji-ping;NIU Zui-rong;HUANG Wei-dong;ZHU Yong;WANG Qi-you(Hydrology and Water Resources Center of the Gansu Province,Lanzhou 730030,Gansu Province,China;Gansu Agricultural University,Lanzhou 730070,Gansu Province,China)
出处
《中国农村水利水电》
北大核心
2024年第10期7-14,24,共9页
China Rural Water and Hydropower
基金
甘肃省科技计划项目软科学专项-公开征集类(23JRZA339)
甘肃省重点研发计划项目(21YF5FA094)
第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究资助。
关键词
出山径流量
成因分析
贡献率
河西内陆河
甘肃省
outgoing runoff
cause analysis
contribution rate
the inland river basin in Hexi
the Gansu Province
