摘要
在吸收借鉴现有研究成果基础上,提出技术锁定生态系统概念,对其内涵与特征进行解析,构建技术锁定生态系统要素模型,从系统稳定性、系统中心性以及系统异质性3个方面,建立技术锁定生态系统评价指标体系,并采用增长率循环指数合成方法,结合5G产业有效发明授权专利,测度2012—2021年中美日韩德五国的技术锁定生态系统指数。结果发现,中国的技术锁定生态系统指数呈现出波动性增长态势;美国的技术锁定生态系统指数呈现出先升后降再缓慢上升的发展态势;日本的技术锁定生态系统指数前期平稳,后期波动较大;韩国与德国的技术锁定生态系统指数均呈现下降趋势。
As international technological competition continues to escalate,technology alliances or interest alliances dominated by foreign enterprises have been locking China's key industries into suboptimal paths,resulting in technological dependence on foreign countries for certain key technologies.In order to strengthen the locking effect,multiple key technology nodes and multiple technology paths are integrated,forming the technology lock-in ecosystem.Against this background,it is established that technology lock-in is a long-term equilibrium state that depends on the existing path of technological development and leads to economic decision-making failures.At the same time,it is pointed out that technology lock-in is mainly based on the essential laws of technological development,and less involved in market and property rights and other environmental analyses.Therefore,this paper integrates the levels of technology,market and property right,puts forward the concept of technology lock-in ecosystem,and also summarizes the essential characteristics based on its conceptual connotations.Then,from the concept and characteristics of technology lock-in ecosystem,this paper constructs the element model of technology lock-in ecosystem from the elements of technology,market,and property,etc.,and establishes the evaluation index system of technology lock-in ecosystem from the aspects of system stability,system centrality and system heterogeneity.From the China High Technology Industry Statistics Database,Strategic Alliance Database and INNOJOY Patent Database,keywords("5G Industry","5G Industry"and"Fifth Generation Mobile Communication Industry",etc.)and IPC classification numbers(H04,A61,C12,G01,H01,and A23,etc.)are selected,and 30635 patent records of China,the United States,Japan,South Korea,and Germany that are valid and invention-granted in the 5G industry from 2012 to 2021(it takes about eighteen months for patents to be granted from filing to granting)are screened.Finally,the coefficient of variation method is used to assign weights to the evaluation index system of the technology lock-in ecosystem,and then the index fluctuation of the technology lock-in ecosystem is further analyzed by the growth rate cycle index synthesis method.The conclusions are drawn.First,the technology lock-in ecosystem refers to the ecosystem in which the technology subject,under the system constraints of patents and property rights,monopolizes the market by locking the key technologies,the technology path and the technology standards externally in order to obtain economic benefits,and it has five characteristics:intermittent equilibrium,environmental adaptability,life cycle,risk prevention,and synergistic evolution.Second,the technology lock-in ecosystem has elements of technology,market,property rights and other elements,which are interrelated and interact with each other through cooperative R&D patents,trading licensing behaviors,and property rights constraints to jointly promote the formation and development of the technology lock-in ecosystem;third,the technology lock-in ecosystem indices of various countries are quite different.China's technology lock-in ecosystem index shows fluctuating growth;the technology lock-in ecosystem index of the United States shows the development trend of"rising first,then falling and then slowly rising";Japan's technology lock-in ecosystem index was stable in the first period,and fluctuated greatly from 2018 to 2020;there is a downward trend in South Korea and Germany's technology lock-in ecosystem indexes.The difference is that the technology lock-in ecosystem index of South Korea fluctuates greatly throughout the observation period,while the technology lock-in ecosystem index of Germany shows a steady decline in general.The study makes some novelties in two aspects.In the mechanism research,it puts forward the conceptual connotation of technology lock-in ecosystem,summarizes its five essential features of intermittent equilibrium,environmental adaptability,life cycle,risk prevention and synergistic evolution,and constructs the elemental model of the technology lock-in ecosystem;in the measurement research,it establishes the index evaluation system of the technology lock-in ecosystem in the following aspects,i.e.,system stability,system centrality,and system heterogeneity,and the effective invention granted patents of China,the United States,Japan,Germany and South Korea in the 5G industry from 2012 to 2021 are selected to measure the index fluctuation of the technology lock-in ecosystem,providing a theoretical basis for China to transform from"passive locking"to"anti-locking"in the 5G industry.
作者
杨武
孙世强
Yang Wu;Sun Shiqiang(School of Economics and Management,University of Science and Technology Beijing,Beijing 100083,China)
出处
《科技进步与对策》
CSSCI
北大核心
2024年第19期14-23,共10页
Science & Technology Progress and Policy
基金
国家自然科学基金面上项目(72074019)。
