摘要
利用系统动力学方法,通过对松材线虫病不同防治措施的防治效果进行调查,建立松材线虫病防治效果预测动力学模型,对不同防治措施下病害未来发生情况和改变政策方案后的防治效果进行模拟研究,结果表明,通过模型仿真能够预测不同防治方法下未来几年的防治效果,通过仿真测定显示采取增加飞防覆盖率、增加经费投入、提供飞防和砍伐补贴等政策,可以实现有效治理松材线虫疫情的目的。综合来看,运用系统动力学方法进行不同防治模式的评价和优化选择,能够为松材线虫疫情防治方案的制定提供一定参考。
Using the system dynamics(SD)method,by investigating the control efficiency of different control measures for pine wilt disease,a predictive SD model was established for the assessment of the control efficiency of the disease,by which the future occurrence of the disease under different control measures and the control efficiency after changing the policy program were simulated.The results showed that the model simulation could reflect the control efficiency in the next few years under the different control methods,and the simulation indicated that effective control efficiency could be realized by the adoption of policies such as increasing the coverage of aerial pesticide application,increasing financial inputs,and providing subsidies for aerial control.In general,the evaluation and optimization of different control modes using the system dynamics method can provide some references for the development of pine wilt disease control programs.
作者
王炳鑫
肖杰文
邓子鑫
熊典广
周长富
田呈明
WANG Bingxin;XIAO Jiewen;DENG Zixin;XIONG Dianguang;ZHOU Changfu;TIAN Chengming(College of Forestry,Beijing Forestry University,Beijing 100083,China;Liuyang Forestry Bureau,Liuyang 410300,Hunan,China)
出处
《西北林学院学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2024年第5期14-21,67,共9页
Journal of Northwest Forestry University
基金
国家重点研发计划(2021YFD1400904)
松材线虫病疫情防控成效综合评价体系项目(622103022)。
关键词
松材线虫病
模型
治理
政策
仿真
pine wilt disease
modeling
governance
policy
simulation
