摘要
受特殊地缘位置和地缘政治形势的影响,中国企业在“一带一路”的海外投资项目面临愈加复杂的地缘政治风险挑战。文章基于地缘政治理论,以美国为例,考察域外大国干预导致的地缘政治风险对中国企业“一带一路”投资区位选择的影响,以及受经济逻辑和政治逻辑权变性的影响,东道国对中国市场出口依赖和东道国与域外大国联盟关系的双层调节作用。研究表明:地缘政治风险显著降低了中国企业对“一带一路”特定国家的投资倾向;东道国对中国市场的出口依赖能显著弱化地缘政治风险的负向影响;在域外大国的盟国体系内,地缘政治风险的负向影响更加明显,并且东道国对中国市场出口依赖的调节作用不再显著,说明面对域外大国强大的关系性权力,经济依赖的“压舱石效应”是脆弱的;拓展性分析发现,国家层面的发展潜力和企业层面的竞争潜力是引发域外大国对中国威胁认知和权力消长认知发生剧变的关键变量,因为在中国对外投资存量较多的东道国,以及中国企业的高技术产业投资和大规模投资上,地缘政治风险的负向影响更加明显。研究结论拓展了对外投资区位决策的研究视角,对中国企业对外投资区位的战略布局具有启示意义。
Influenced by unique geopolitical positioning and the dynamics of geopolitics,Chinese enterprises face increasingly complex geopolitical risks in their overseas investment projects along the Belt and Road(BRI)countries.We draw on geopolitical theory,taking the United States as an example,to explore the impact of geopolitical risk caused by the intervention of extraterritorial powers on investment location choice of Chinese enterprises in the BRI countries.Moreover,we discuss the double-layered moderating effects of the export dependence of host country on Chinese market and the alliance relationship between the host country and extraterritorial powers under the contingency of economic-and political logic.The results show that the geopolitical risk has a significantly negative impact on the investment location choice of Chinese enterprises in the BRI countries.The dependence of the host country on China’s market for exports can significantly weaken the adverse effects of geopolitical risk;However,in the alliance system of extraterritorial powers,the adverse effects of geopolitical risk are more significant,and the moderating effect of the export dependence of host country on China’s market is no longer significant,indicating that in the face of the strong relational power of extraterritorial powers,the"ballast stone effect"of economic dependence is fragile.Extended analysis reveals that the development potential at the national level and the competitive potential at the corporate level should be the key variables triggering a dramatic change in the perception of threats to and power dynamics with China by extraterritorial powers.This is because the adverse impact of geopolitical risk on the investment location choice of Chinese enterprises along the BRI countries is mainly significant in the host countries with a large stock of Chinese investment,as well as in the high-tech industry and in large-scale investment.Our findings not only expand the research perspective of the investment location decisions,but also have an enlightening significance for the investment location choice of Chinese enterprises.Firstly,Chinese enterprises should consider the control and influence of the United States as a reference point for perceiving the political environment of host countries during foreign investment.Secondly,in the face of geopolitical risks,it is prudent to evaluate the positive effects generated by the economic dependence of the host country on the Chinese market.Lastly,when investing to the BRI countries,it is wise to choose countries with a smaller stock of Chinese investment,focus on multi-party cooperation in high-tech industry investments,and refine and disaggregate large investment projects.
作者
杜晓君
唐晨曦
祁乔
冯飞
Du Xiaojun;Tang Chenxi;Qi Qiao;Feng Fei
出处
《南方经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2024年第8期90-114,共25页
South China Journal of Economics
基金
国家社科基金重点项目“中国跨国企业应对‘一带一路’延伸国家政治风险的战略反应研究”(19AGL004)资助。
关键词
地缘政治风险
“一带一路”
投资区位选择
地缘政治关系
Geopolitical Risk
the Belt and Road
Investment Location Choice
Geopolitical Relationship
