摘要
水资源承载力是指一个区域或国家所能提供的可持续利用的水资源量,它直接关系到社会经济的可持续发展和生态环境的健康,也是衡量特定区域水资源供需平衡能力的重要指标。本文将对云南省水资源承载力进行分析评价,首先运用博弈论组合赋权法,结合专家打分的层次分析法和客观分析原始数据的熵权法及变异系数法,得出综合权重;然后采用灰色关联度改进的逼近理想解的排序方法(Technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution,TOPSIS)及耦合协调分析法,综合得出云南省在2008~2020年间水资源承载力的变化情况并做出评价。结果表明,2008~2020年水资源承载力总体呈上升趋势,其中,经济子系统和社会子系统的承载力始终保持持续上升的状态,而水资源子系统和生态环境子系统则出现波动情况。2008~2014年,云南省为大力发展经济,牺牲了一定的水资源合理开发利用,但在2014年后,开始注重水资源保护,实施绿色可持续发展战略,水资源子系统的承载力逐步提升。
Water carrying capacity refers to the volume of water resources that can be sustainably utilized by a region or country,directly impacting the sustainable development of the economy and the well-being of the ecological environment.It is also a crucial index for measuring the water resource supply-demand balance in a specific area.Analysis and evaluation of the water carrying capacity of Yunnan province were conducted in this article.Initially,a game theory and combination weighting method was employed,integrating the expert scoring of the analytic hierarchy process with the objective analysis of the original data using entropy method and coefficient of variation method to derive comprehensive weight.Then,an improved technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution(TOPSIS)based on grey relational analysis and a coupling coordination analysis method were used to comprehensively determine the changes of water carrying capacity between 2008 and 2020 and to make an evaluation.The results show that from 2008 to 2020,the overall water carrying capacity shows an upward trend.During this period,the carrying capacity of the economic and social subsystems continuously rise,while the water resource and ecological environment subsystems experience fluctuations.From 2008 to 2014,the rational development and utilization of water resource were sacrificed by Yunnan province for the sake of vigorous economic development.However,after 2014,the attention shifts towards water resource protection,implementing a strategy for green and sustainable development,gradually enhancing the carrying capacity of the water resource subsystem.
作者
胡宇昕
邹进
许开和
牛鹏举
HU Yuxin;ZOU Jin;XU Kaihe;NIU Pengju(School of Electrical Engineering,Kunming University of Science and Technology,Kunming 650500,China)
出处
《黑龙江大学自然科学学报》
CAS
2024年第3期310-320,共11页
Journal of Natural Science of Heilongjiang University
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(41061053)。
