摘要
[目的]根据核桃炭疽病的已知分布情况,对它在中国范围内和云南省范围内的适生区分别进行预测分析,明确核桃炭疽病在我国潜在的分布区范围,有助于生产上采取科学高效的监测和预防措施,降低潜在的生态和经济损失。[方法]利用MaxEnt物种分布模型,通过筛选生物气候变量和优化模型参数构建表现最佳的模型,进而应用于核桃炭疽病在中国和云南省范围内的适生区的预测。利用ArcGIS软件对预测结果进行可视化处理和面积统计,并利用模型的结果对影响核桃炭疽病的主要环境因素进行分析。[结果]MaxEnt模型预测结果显示:影响核桃炭疽病适生性的主导环境因子主要有年降雨量、最干月份降雨量、温度季节性、最冷季度平均温度、年平均温度、等温性、平均日较差和最暖季度平均降雨量等。核桃炭疽病在中国生态适宜区总面积约为317.12万平方公里,占国土总面积的33.03%,主要分布在我国华中、华东、华南的全部地区以及西南大部分地区和“三北”(西北、华北、东北)少部分地区;核桃炭疽病在云南的适生区主要集中在滇西地区,约为22.64万平方公里,占省总面积的57.44%。[结论]核桃炭疽病在中国有着较为广泛的适生区域,尤以云南省核桃炭疽病发生点数量最多和高度适生区分布区域最广泛,预测适生区与已经获取核桃炭疽病分布点结果相一致,未来应结合当地核桃炭疽病菌的生物学特征和实地分布情况进一步加强核桃炭疽病的预测和防治。
[Objective]As an important ecological and economic tree species,walnut tree belongs to Juglandaceae deciduous and has been widely cultivated in the world.Anthracnose caused by Colleto-trichum species including C.gloeosporioides,C.siamense etc.,is one of the main diseases of walnut.Ac-cording to the known distribution of walnut anthracnose,the range of its suitable growing areas was pre-dicted and analyzed in China and Yunnan province,and the potential distribution range of walnut an-thracnose in China was identified,which would help to take scientific and efficient monitoring and preven-tion measures in production and reduce potential ecological and economic losses.[Methods]The species distribution model MaxEnt was used to develop the model by selecting bioclimate variables and optimizing model parameters,and then applied the model to predict the suitable habitat of walnut anthracnose in China and Yunnan province.ArcGIS software was used to visualize the prediction results and deal with area statistics,and the results of the model were used to analyze the main environmental factors affecting walnut anthracnose.[Results]The results showed that the main environmental factors affecting the adapt-ability of walnut anthracnose were annual rainfall,rainfall in the driest month,temperature seasonality,av-erage temperature in the coldest quarter,annual average temperature,isotherm,average daily range,and average rainfall in the warmest quarter.The total area of walnut anthracnose in China's ecological suitable areas was about 3.1712 million square kilometers,accounting for 33.03%of the total land area.It was mainly distributed in all areas of central,eastern and southern China,as well as most areas in the southw-est and a few areas of the northwest,north and northeast in China.The suitable growth area of walnut an-thracnose was mainly concentrated in western Yunnan,about 226400 square kilometers,accounting for 57.44%of the total area of the province.[Conclusion]Walnut anthracnose has a relatively wide range of suitable growth areas in China,especially in Yunnan province,where anthracnose has the largest number of occurrence points and the widest distribution of highly suitable areas.The predicted suitable growth areas are consistent with the obtained distribution points of walnut anthracnose.In the future,the predic-tion and control of walnut anthracnose should be further strengthened in combination with the biological characteristics and field distribution of the local walnut anthracnose pathogen.
作者
薄淑文
喻红稠
韩长志
BO Shu-wen;YU Hong-chou;HAN Chang-zhi(College of Forestrye,Southwest Forestry University,Kunming 650224,Yunnan,China;The Key Laboratory of Forest Disaster Warning and Control of Yunnan province,Kunming 650224,Yunnan,China)
出处
《林业科学研究》
CSCD
北大核心
2024年第3期68-78,共11页
Forest Research
基金
云南省“兴滇英才支持计划”青年人才专项(YNWR-QNBJ-2020-188)
国家自然科学基金项目(31960314)
云南省研究生导师团队建设项目(2022100)。
