摘要
在全球可持续发展的背景下,研究评估城市扩张中生态系统碳储量的变化对提升区域固碳能力有重要作用。该研究基于1980-2020年苏州市土地利用数据,采用InVEST模型模拟40年间苏州市碳储量时空演变情况,并使用PLUS模型结合相关驱动因子对2030年不同情景下碳储量进行预测。结果表明:(1)1980-2020年间苏州市土地利用类型以耕地、水域和建设用地为主,其中耕地面积持续减少,建设用地面积持续增加,其余地类面积变化相对较小,用地转移类型主要为耕地转为建设用地;(2)1980-2020年,苏州市碳储量呈持续下降趋势,40年间共减少5.768×10^(6)t;(3)2030年自然发展和规划约束情景下碳储量分别较2020年减少6.52×10^(5)和3.54×10^(4)t,规划约束情景下碳流失现象得到缓和。研究结果可为长三角地区“双碳”政策制定及国土空间布局优化提供参考。
In the context of global sustainable development,assessing and predicting changes in land use and ecosystem carbon storage in urban expansion plays a crucial role in enhancing regional carbon sequestration capacity.Based on land use data in Suzhou City from 1980 to 2020,the InVEST model was utilized to simulate the spatiotemporal evolution of carbon storage over 40 years.Furthermore,it combined relevant driving factors using the PLUS model to predict carbon storage under different scenarios in 2030.The results indicate from 1980 to 2020,the dominant land use types were crop⁃land,water bodies,and urban land.Cropland area decreased while urban land area increased,with minimal changes in other land classes.The predominant land use transition was the conversion of cropland to urban land.Carbon storage exhibited a continuous decreasing trend from 1980 to 2020,decreasing by a total of 5.768×10^(6) tons over 40 years.In 2030,under the scenarios of natural development and planning constraint,carbon storage decreased by 6.52×10^(5) and 3.54×10^(4) tons,respec⁃tively,compared to 2020.The planning constraint scenario mitigated carbon loss.These research findings can provide a scientific basis and reference for the formulation of"dual carbon"policies and the optimization of territorial spatial planning in Yangtze River Delta.
作者
杨子豪
陈德超
郎峥
詹宏娟
蒋如乔
YANG Zihao;CHEN Dechao;LANG Zheng;ZHAN Hongjuan;JIANG Ruqiao(School of Environmental Science and Engineering,Suzhou University of Science and Technology,Suzhou 215009,China;School of Geography Science and Geomatics Engineering,Suzhou University of Science and Technology,Suzhou 215009,China;Yuance Information Technology Co.,Ltd.,Suzhou 215027,China)
出处
《环境科学与技术》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2024年第2期206-214,共9页
Environmental Science & Technology
基金
江苏省研究生科研与实践创新计划项目(SJCX23_1716)。
