摘要
本文基于委托代理理论,构建非对称信息视角下中国区域金融风险影响机制的分析框架,并采用TVP-SV-VAR模型探究不同地区区域内金融风险影响机制的异质性。研究表明,非对称信息下金融系统委托代理行为致使商业银行存在信贷配给,资金倾斜助长了地方债扩张和房地产泡沫累积,一旦债务违约及泡沫破裂造成大量银行不良资产积聚,将引发区域金融风险。异质性研究发现,经济发达地区中房地产泡沫是区域金融风险形成的主导因素;经济次发达地区中地方政府过度举债是引致区域金融风险的主要冲击;而经济欠发达地区的区域金融风险是地方政府过度举债与房地产泡沫共同作用所致。国家金融监督管理总局应严控商业银行信贷资金流向,并对地方债扩张和房地产泡沫等区域金融风险影响因素实行“属性+对策”的差异化监管,构建风险治理的区域协作平台,提高区域金融风险的防范处置能力。
Based on the principal-agent theory,this paper constructs an analysis framework for the impact mechanism of regional financial risk in China from the perspective of asymmetric information,and uses the TVP-SV-VAR model to explore the heterogeneity of the financial risk impact mechanism in different regions.The results show that the entrustment agency behavior of the financial system under asymmetric information leads to credit rationing of commercial banks,and the tilt of funds promotes the expansion of local bonds and the accumulation of real estate bubbles.Once the debt default and bubble burst cause a large number of banks’non-performing assets to accumulate,regional financial risks will be triggered.Heterogeneity studies have found that real estate bubble in economically developed regions is the leading factor in the formation of regional financial risks.Excessive borrowing by local governments in economically sub-developed regions is the main impact of regional financial risks.Regional financial risks in economically underdeveloped areas are caused by the combination of excessive borrowing by local governments and real estate bubbles.The China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission should rigorously control the flow of credit funds from commercial banks and implement differentiated supervision on factors influencing regional financial risks,such as local debt expansion and real estate bubbles,using an“attribute+strategy”approach.It is suggested to establish a regional cooperation platform for risk governance to enhance the prevention and disposal capabilities of regional financial risks.
作者
史桂芬
陈倩
王佳莹
SHI Guifen;CHEN Qian;WANG Jiaying(School of Economics and Management,Northeast Normal University,Changchun 130117,China)
出处
《商业研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2024年第1期38-48,共11页
Commercial Research
基金
国家社会科学基金项目,项目编号:20BJY138。
