摘要
本文以2010—2021年新疆农业经济、农业生态、农业社会3个子系统下的31个复合系统的耦合协调发展体系指标为研究内容,分析并构建新疆农业经济、农业生态、农业社会3个子系统的评价指标,运用熵值赋权法、耦合协调度模型,对新疆地区农业发展水平和协调程度进行系统研究。研究期内3个系统总体上沿着农业社会滞后-农业经济滞后-农业环境滞后的轨迹演变。3个系统的耦合协调度从最初的中度失调衰退,经过濒临失调衰退、勉强协调、初级协调、中级协调,到2021年的良好协调,耦合协调度等级从失调阶段不断向耦合协调阶段发展。研究发现,农业生态滞后逐渐成为新疆地区农业发展的主要限制因素,农业社会和农业经济的发展是3个系统耦合协调度逐渐提高的关键。因此,新疆农业的发展首先应保护生态环境并合理开发农业资源;其次要利用好农业社会系统的发展优势,扎实推进乡村建设;最后要大力推进科技创新,培育壮大特色优势产业,助推新疆农业发展。
Using the coupled and coordinated development system indicators of 31 complex systems under the three sub-systems of agricultural economy,agricultural ecology,and agricultural society in Xinjiang from 2010 to 2021 as the research content,this paper analyzed and constructed the evaluation indicators of the three sub-systems in Xinjiang,and systematically studied the level and coordination of agricultural development in Xinjiang using entropy weight method and coupled coordination degree model.During the study period,the three systems evolved along the tracks of lagging in agricultural society,to lagging in agricultural economy and lagging in agricultural environment.The coupling coordination degree of the three system developed from the initial moderate imbalance decline,through the verge of imbalance decline,barely coordination,preliminary coordination,intermediate coordination,to good coordination in 2021.The coupling coordination degree level has continuously developed from the imbalance stage to the coupling coordination stage.It was found that the lagging of agricultural ecology gradually became the main limiting factor of agricultural development in Xinjiang,and the development of agricultural society and agricultural economy was the key to the gradual improvement of the coupling coordination degree of the three systems.Therefore,protecting the ecological environment and rationally developing agricultural resources should come first in the development of agriculture in Xinjiang.Secondly,making good use of the system development advantages of agricultural society to promote rural construction firmly.Finally,vigorously promoting scientific and technological innovation,cultivating and expanding characteristic and advantageous industries to promote the development of Xinjiang agriculture.
作者
潘承旺
马海霞
PAN Chengwang;MA Haixia(Business School,Xinjiang Normal University,Urumqi 830017,China)
出处
《现代农业》
2024年第1期82-91,共10页
Modern Agriculture
基金
2023年新疆维吾尔自治区自然科学基金面上项目“产业集群视角下新疆粮食产业链增值路径研究”(2023D01A50)。
关键词
农业经济
农业生态
农业社会
耦合协调
新疆
agricultural economy
agricultural ecology
agricultural society
coupling coordination
Xinjiang
