摘要
为了明确鸳鸯(Aix galericulata)越冬的主要分布区域和河流,研究气候因素等对鸳鸯越冬分布区的影响,收集了鸳鸯越冬分布的95条地理数据,经筛选后,选择74条用于建立模型;利用最大熵模型,预测越冬鸳鸯的潜在分布区;采用刀切法,评价各种环境变量对模型的重要性;采用受试者工作特征曲线与横坐标围成的面积值(AUC值),对预测结果进行准确度检验。研究结果表明,10次重复建立模型的AUC平均值为0.971,即所建立的最大熵模型的预测结果优秀;鸳鸯越冬的高适宜区面积为6.83×10^(4)km^(2),中适宜区的面积为33.41×10^(4)km^(2),低适宜区的面积为67.34×10^(4)km^(2);鸳鸯越冬的高适宜河流的总长度为32 727.27 km,鸳鸯越冬的高适宜区和河流都主要分布在湖南省、江西省、浙江省、湖北省和安徽省;最干月的降水量、与水源的距离和最冷月的最低气温是影响鸳鸯越冬区分布的主要因素;鸳鸯对水环境和隐蔽度(安全)有较高的要求。根据鸳鸯越冬区分散分布的特点,建议采取保护区或保护小区的形式,对越冬鸳鸯种群数量较大的区域加以保护。
The aim of this study was to identify the main areas and river sections where mandarin duck(Aix galericulata)overwinter and characterize the effects of environmental factors,such as climatic factors,on the overwintering distribution of this species.In this study,95 data points from wintering occurrence records of mandarin duck were collected,and a total of 74 data points were selected and used for modeling.Maximum entropy model(MaxEnt)was used to predict the potential wintering areas of mandarin duck.The importance of each variable in the model was evaluated using the jackknife test,and the prediction results were tested for accuracy using the area under the curve(AUC value)from the receiver operating characteristic curve and the horizontal coordinates.The results indicated that the model predictions were accurate,the mean AUC value for 10 model runs was 0.971.The sizes of wintering areas with high,medium,and low suitability for mandarin ducks were 6.83×10^(4) km^(2),33.41×10^(4) km^(2),and 67.34×10^(4) km^(2),respectively.A total of 32727.27 km of rivers showed high overwintering suitability for mandarin duck,and most of the overwintering areas and rivers with high suitability were concentrated in Hunan,Jiangxi,Zhejiang,Hubei,and Anhui provinces.Precipitation during the driest month,distance to water,and minimum temperature of the coldest month were the main factors affecting the overwintering distribution of mandarin duck.Our findings demonstrated that mandarin duck had a high demand for freshwater habitats and sheltering areas.In light of the dispersed distribution of overwintering sites with high suitability,nature reserves or small nature reserves should be established to protect large overwintering mandarin duck populations.
作者
杨福成
洪兆春
丁红秀
邵明勤
YANG Fucheng;HONG Zhaochun;DING Hongxiu;SHAO Mingqin(College of Life Science,Jiangxi Normal University,Nanchang 330022,Jiangxi,P.R.China;Chongqing Natural History Museum,Chongqing 400700,P.R.China)
出处
《湿地科学》
CSCD
北大核心
2024年第1期60-71,共12页
Wetland Science
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(32360142)资助。
关键词
鸳鸯
潜在越冬分布区
最大熵模型
mandarin duck
potential wintering distribution area
maximum entropy model
