摘要
中美视东南亚为重要的地缘战略区,两国在东南亚地区具有重要地缘影响。该文以地缘影响力分析框架为基础构建地缘影响力评估模型,从政治、经济和军事3个领域视角定量刻画中美在东南亚的影响力变化特征及影响机制。研究发现:①2010—2021年中国在东南亚的地缘影响力呈上升趋势,地缘经济影响力上升最快,且在政治、经济两个领域的影响力逐渐超越美国;美国在东南亚的地缘政治影响力一直较平稳,地缘经济影响力增长缓慢,地缘军事影响力较中国优势明显,但差距在减小;中美两国在不同领域对各个国家的地缘影响存在较大差异。②国家实力是地缘影响力的作用基石,但国家实力并不与地缘影响力呈严格的正相关性;地缘关系互动是地缘影响力的核心变量,不同领域的互动事件是其具体外在表现,可以作为考量不同领域地缘影响力的要素之一;领域关系是评价地缘影响力不能忽略的重要变量;地理区位、交通条件、文化距离等对地缘影响力具有制约作用,距离较近、交通便捷、文化认同感强有利于增强地缘影响力。
Southeast Asia is an important geostrategic region for China and the U.S..This paper builds a geo-influence evaluation model based on the geo-influence analysis framework,and quantitatively depicts the evolution characteristics and driving mechanism of the geo-influence of China and the U.S.on Southeast Asian countries from the perspectives of politics,economy,and military fields.It is found as follows.①From 2010 to 2021,China′s geo-influence on Southeast Asia showed an upward trend,and its geo-economic influence had the fastest rising trend,and the influence in both political and economic fields gradually surpassed that of the U.S..The geopolitical influence of the U.S.on Southeast Asia was relatively stable,its geo-economic influence showed a slow growth,and its geo-military influence had obvious advantages over China,but the gap was narrowing.At the same time,there were great differences between the two countries in the geo-influence on each country in different fields.②National strength is the cornerstone of geo-influence,but national strength does not maintain a strict positive correlation with geo-influence.Geo-relationship interaction is the core variable of geo-influence,and interaction events in different fields are its specific external manifestations,which can be used as one of the elements to consider the geo-influence in different fields.Domain relationship is an important variable that cannot be ignored in evaluating geo-influence.Geographic location,traffic conditions,cultural distance,etc.have a restrictive effect on geo-influence,and closer distance,convenient transportation,strong cultural identity,etc.are conducive to enhancing geo-influence.
作者
唐代红
张晶
韩志军
常耀伟
杜树坤
TANG Daihong;ZHANG Jing;HAN Zhijun;CHANG Yaowei;DU Shukun(Information Engineering University,Zhengzhou 450001;Henan Collaborative Innovation Center of Smart Central Plains Geographic Information Technology,Zhengzhou 450052;32021 Chinese People′s Liberation Army Troops,Beijing 100094,China)
出处
《地理与地理信息科学》
CSCD
北大核心
2024年第1期89-98,共10页
Geography and Geo-Information Science
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(41301125、41401160)
国家社会科学基金重大项目(20&ZD138)。
关键词
地缘影响力
东南亚
测度模型
中国
美国
geo-influence
Southeast Asia
measurement model
China
the U.S.
