摘要
针对气候变化和种植结构调整对黄淮海地区农业生产作用不明晰的问题,基于反硝化分解模型(Denitrification-decomposition, DNDC),采用情景分析法评估了气候与种植结构变化对黄淮海地区农业温室气体(CO_(2)、CH_(4)和N_(2)O)排放和灌溉需水量的影响。结果表明:从1995年到2015年,研究区气候向暖湿化方向发展,其中年均最高温度无显著变化,年均最低温度上升0.7℃,年降水量增长46.5 mm;1995年研究区玉米、小麦和水稻种植面积分别约为7.9×10^(6)、1.4×10^(7)、2.9×10^(6)hm^(2);2015年3种作物种植面积均增大,而水稻、小麦种植比例减小。气候变化影响下,黄淮海地区农业温室气体排放增加,灌溉需水量小幅减小。与1995年相比,2015年CO_(2)、CH_(4)、N_(2)O排放强度分别增长至3 730.5、443.2、5.9 kg/hm^(2),增幅分别为4.7%、0.8%、26.2%,灌溉需水量减小为499.3 mm,减幅为6.6%。种植结构调整改变温室气体排放和灌溉需水量,黄淮海地区种植结构演变使CO_(2)、CH_(4)、N_(2)O排放总量增加至9.9×10^(7)、1.4×10^(6)、1.3×10^(5)t,分别增加13.8%、8.6%、13.3%,同时,玉米作为高耗水作物,部分地区灌溉需水量随其种植比例的增大而增大。研究结果可为黄淮海地区未来农业节水减排政策的制定提供理论依据。
Aiming at the unclear effect of climate change and planting structure adjustment on agricultural production in Huang-Huai-Hai region,based on denitrification decomposition model(DNDC),the effect of climate and planting structure change on agricultural greenhouse gas(CO_(2),CH_(4) and N_(2)O)emission and irrigation water demand in the Huang-Huai-Hai area was assessed by scenario analysis.The results showed that from 1995 to 2015,the climate in the study area developed towards the direction of warm and humid,in which the average annual maximum temperature did not change significantly,the average annual minimum temperature increased by 0.7℃,and the annual precipitation increased by 46.5mm.In 1995,the planting area of maize,wheat and rice was about 7.9×10^(6) hm^(2),1.4×10^(7)hm^(2) and 2.9×10^(6)hm^(2),respectively.In 2015,the planting area of three crops was increased,while the planting proportion of rice and wheat was decreased.Under the influence of climate change,agricultural greenhouse gas emissions were increased and irrigation water demand was decreased slightly in the Huang-Huai-Hai region.Compared with that in 1995,the emission intensity of CO_(2),CH_(4) and N_(2)O was increased by 4.7%,0.8%and 26.2%respectively to 3730.5kg/hm^(2),443.2kg/hm^(2) and 5.9kg/hm^(2) in 2015,and the irrigation water demand was decreased to 499.3mm with decrease of 6.6%.The adjustment of planting structure changed greenhouse gas emissions and irrigation water demand.The evolution of planting structure in the Huang-Huai-Hai region increased the total emissions of CO_(2),CH_(4) and N 2.O to 9.9×10^(7)t,1.4×10^(6)t and 1.3×10^(5)t,which was increased by 13.8%,8.6%and 13.3%,respectively.Meanwhile,in some areas,the irrigation water demand was increased with the increase of corn planting proportion as a high water consuming crop.The research results can provide theoretical basis for the formulation of future agricultural water saving and emission reduction policies in the Huang-Huai-Hai region.
作者
栾晓波
高子涵
薛静
孙世坤
唐一荷
高飞
LUAN Xiaobo;GAO Zihan;XUE Jing;SUN Shikuni;TANG Yihe;GAO Fei(Key Laboratory of Agricultural Soil and Water Engineering in Arid and Semiarid Areas,Ministry of Education,Northwest A&F University,Yangling,Shaanxi 712100,China;College of Water Resources and Architectural Engineering,Northwest A&F University,Yangling,Shaanxi 712100,China)
出处
《农业机械学报》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2023年第12期327-337,共11页
Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(51979230、52109065)
中国博士后科学基金项目(2022M712605)。
关键词
种植结构
灌溉需水量
温室气体
DNDC模型
planting structure
irrigation water demand
greenhouse gases
DNDC model
