摘要
为明确蒜芥茄(Solanum sisymbriifolium Lam.)在我国的适生性,根据蒜芥茄在全球最新分布数据和气候环境变量,利用MaxEnt模型结合ArcGIS软件对其在我国的潜在地理分布进行预测,并对相关环境因子对预测结果的影响进行分析。研究结果显示:蒜芥茄在我国的适生区包括华南全部地区,华中、华东大部分地区,西南、西北部分地区以及华北零星地区。未来气候条件与历史气候条件下的适生范围基本一致,适生程度在不同气候情景下存在一定差异。对预测结果的重要性排前三的环境变量是温度季节变化bio4、最冷季度平均温度bio11、最暖季度平均温度bio10。研究结果可为蒜芥茄在我国的发生提供早期预警和有效防控提供科学指导。
In order to analyze the suitability of Solanum sisymbrifolium Lamarck in China,according to the latest distribution of S.sisymbrifolium and the bioclimatic data,the MaxEnt model combined with ArcGIS were used to predict its potential geographic distribution in China,and the influence of related environmental factors on the prediction results was analyzed.The results showed that the suitable areas in-cluded all of South China,most of Central and East China,parts of southwest and northwest and sporadic areas of North China.The suitable range of future climatic conditions is basically consistent with that of historical climatic conditions,while the degree of suitable conditions varies in different climatic scenarios.The top 3 environmental variables in terms of importance to prediction results are temperature seasonality(bio4),mean temperature of coldest quarter(biol1),and mean temperature of warmest quarter(bio10).The results can provide scientific guidance for early warning and effective prevention and control of the occurrence of S.sisymbrifolium in our country.
作者
刘勇
方焱
张莹
王仲敏
马健
高建
杨东果
魏亚东
康芬芬
Fang Yan;Zhang Ying;Wang Zhongmin;Ma Jian;Gao Jian;Yang Dongguo;Wei Yadong;Kang Fenfen(Tianjin Customs District,Tianjin 300457,China)
出处
《植物检疫》
2023年第6期52-56,共5页
Plant Quarantine
关键词
蒜芥茄
入侵物种
最大熵模型
潜在地理分布
Solanum sisymbrifolium
invasive species
MaxEnt
potential geographical distribution
