摘要
为了探究畜牧业产业集聚对畜牧业碳排放的影响,研究基于2001—2020年我国31个省(自治区、直辖市)的畜牧业面板数据,在对畜牧业产业集聚、畜牧业碳排放总量和强度进行测算的基础上,使用Moran’s I指数探究其空间自相关性,通过构建库兹涅兹曲线模型与空间杜宾模型(SDM)探究畜牧业产业集聚对畜牧业碳排放的作用机制。结果表明:各地区畜牧业碳排放总量与强度近年来均有所降低,但西部地区仍然远高于其他地区。畜牧业产业越来越集中于中西部地区,东部地区的畜牧业产业集聚程度有下降的趋势。畜牧业碳排放强度与产业集聚度均存在显著集聚的空间自相关性,前者以低低聚集为主,后者以高高聚集和低低聚集为主。畜牧业产业集聚与畜牧业碳排放之间存在倒“U”型关系,在产生抑制作用前会促进畜牧业碳排放。畜牧业产业集聚对畜牧业碳排放强度有正向空间间接效应,能够提高邻近地区的畜牧业碳排放强度。畜牧业产业集聚的短期直接效应、间接效应和总效应均小于长期效应。因此,应当制定合理的碳排放目标,尽快提高畜牧业产业集聚水平,发挥集聚效应与示范效应,达成农业领域的碳减排目标。
In order to explore the influence of animal husbandry industry agglomeration on animal husbandry carbon emissions,based on the panel data of animal husbandry in 31 provinces(autonomous regions and municipalities)in China from 2001 to 2020,this study calculated the agglomeration of animal husbandry industry and the total carbon emissions and intensity of animal husbandry and used Moran's I index to explore the spatial autocorrelation.EKC curve model and spatial Dubin model were constructed to explore the mechanism of animal husbandry industry agglomeration on carbon emissions.The results showed that the total carbon emission and intensity of animal husbandry in all regions had decreased in recent years,but they were still significantly higher in the western region than the other regions.The animal husbandry industry was more and more concentrated in the central and western regions,but the concentration degree of animal husbandry industry in the eastern region had a declining trend.There was a significant spatial autocorrelation between carbon emission intensity of animal husbandry and industrial agglomeration degree.The former was dominated by low-low agglomeration,while the latter is dominated by high-high and low-low agglomeration.There was an inverted U-shaped relationship between the industrial agglomeration of animal husbandry and carbon emissions of animal husbandry,which meant carbon emissions of animal husbandry were promoted before producing an inhibitory effect.The agglomeration of animal husbandry industry had a positive spillover effect on the carbon emission intensity of animal husbandry,which could improve the carbon emission intensity of animal husbandry in neighboring areas.The short-term direct effect,indirect effect and total effect of animal husbandry industry agglomeration were smaller than the long-term effect.Therefore,reasonable carbon emission targets should be formulated,the agglomeration level of livestock industry should be improved as soon as possible,agglomeration effect and demonstration effect should be brought into play to achieve the carbon emission reduction targets of agriculture.
作者
陈卫洪
钱海慧
颜光耀
CHEN Weihong;QIAN Haihui;YAN Guangyao(School of Economics,Guizhou University,Guiyang 550000,China;Guizhou Danxueshan Permaculture Development Co.,Ltd.,Changshun 550700,China;Bureau of Agricultural and Rural Affairs of Xinchang County,Xinchang 312500,China)
出处
《黑龙江畜牧兽医》
北大核心
2023年第20期10-21,28,共13页
Heilongjiang Animal Science And veterinary Medicine
基金
国家社会科学基金项目(BGX230346)
教育部新农科研究与改革实践项目“面向新农科的实践教育体系构建”(2020347)
贵州省科技平台及人才团队计划项目(黔科合平台人才[2017]5647)
贵州大学人文社会科学研究一般项目(GDYB2021005)。
关键词
畜牧业
碳排放
产业集聚
库兹涅兹曲线
空间杜宾模型
animal husbandry
carbon emissions
industrial agglomeration
EKC curve
spatial Dupin model
