摘要
选取泰州兴化市2010—2019年河蟹生产的真实数据,运用模糊数学理论设计隶属函数,采用“试错法”和归一化处理方法,对河蟹生产指标(单位投苗量的单产、存活率)受不同天气的气象因子(高温日数、连续高温频次、降雨日数、连阴雨频次、短日照天数、连续寡照频次等)的影响进行统计分析与关联性研究。结果表明,阴雨寡照天气对河蟹实际生产造成较大的影响,而高温天气由于受人为措施的干涉,所产生的负面影响被弱化。基于该研究结果,设计出河蟹天气指数保险产品(高温指数、阴雨指数、寡照指数),以期为推动泰州市农业气象指数保险工作的发展,为江苏省乃至全国水产气象保险业务提供试点方案。
The real data of river crab production from 2010 to 2019 in Xinghua City,Taizhou were selected,the membership function was designed by using fuzzy mathematics theory,and the“trial and error”and normalized processing method were adopted to statistically analyze and associatively study the influence of different weather meteorological factors(high temperature days,continuous high temperature frequency,rain days,continuous rain frequency,short sunshine days,continuous short sunshine frequency)on river crab production indices(yield per unit seedling amount,survival rate).The results showed that overcast and rainy weather had a great impact on the actual production of the river crab,while the negative impact of high temperature weather was weakened due to the intervention of human measures.Based on the research results,a weather index insurance product for the river crab(high temperature index,rainy index,overcast index)was designed,in order to promote the development of agricultural meteorological index insurance work in Taizhou City,and provide a pilot scheme for Jiangsu Province and even the national aquatic meteorological insurance business.
作者
王展
郭建茂
赵蓓蓓
田鹏飞
向阳
邹学智
吴艳丽
WANG Zhan;GUO Jian-mao;ZHAO Bei-bei;TIAN Peng-fei;XIANG Yang;ZOU Xue-zhi;WU Yan-li(Yangzhou Meteorological Bureau,Yangzhou 225000,Jiangsu,China;Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology,Nanjing 210044,China;Taizhou Meteorological Bureau,Taizhou 225300,Jiangsu,China;Xinghua Meteorological Bureau,Xinghua 225700,Jiangsu,China;Xinghua Bureau of Agriculture and Rural Affairs,Xinghua 225700,Jiangsu,China)
出处
《湖北农业科学》
2023年第9期234-241,共8页
Hubei Agricultural Sciences
基金
江苏省自然科学基金项目(BK20191139)
保障粮食安全的气象灾害风险预警评估技术研究(KZ202302)。
关键词
河蟹
气象因子
天气指数
农业保险
兴化市
river crab
meteorological factors
weather index
agricultural insurance
Xinghua City
