摘要
新古典现实主义理论强调通过“第二意象”路径讨论联盟的重要性和必要性,但该理论在分析联盟决策的形成过程时未能充分探究国家统治集团内部矛盾的作用。基于选举人理论,作者探究了领导人与致胜联盟之间、致胜联盟成员彼此之间的国内政治斗争如何塑造对外联盟政策这一问题。分析中国春秋时期的会盟史实后发现,作为致胜联盟成员的卿大夫为谋求自身在国内政治中的生存会倾向于与大国结盟,并表现出与本国国君不同的联盟政策偏好。由卿大夫主体所引发的反制国君或同僚的国内政治斗争会深刻影响诸侯国的会盟决策和行为:卿大夫政治力量的膨胀将会推动一个诸侯国更多地参与会盟,尤其是与相对实力更强、对该国战争威胁更大的大国进行结盟;当诸侯国卿大夫的政治力量持续膨胀且超过一定限度并在国内政治斗争中占据显著优势时,卿大夫推动对外结盟的动力就会下降,该诸侯国与其他国家的会盟便会减少。作者采用中国春秋时期诸侯国会盟配对数据集进行了定量研究,相关实证检验支持了上述观点,这在一定程度上拓展了以国内政治斗争解释国家间联盟行为的研究路径。
Neoclassical realism underscores the significance of studying alliances through the“second image”pathway but falls short in investigating internal contradictions within state ruling groups that influence alliance decisions.To address this gap,this article draws on the selectorate theory to explore how domestic political struggles among leaders and winning coalition members shape a state's external alliance policy.Through historical analysis of alliance records from China's Spring and Autumn Period,we find that aristocratic officials(qingdafu),as members of winning alliances within feudal states,were compelled to ally with larger powers to ensure political survival amid domestic power struggles.This preference for alliances diverged from rulers who resisted affiliating with dominant states under the hierarchical system.As a result,internal political contestations initiated by aristocrats against rulers or colleagues significantly impacted the decision-making of the state in forming alliances.The expansion of political power among aristocratic officials drove the state to participate in more alliances,especially with more powerful states posing substantial military threats.Conversely,when aristocrats'political power surpassed a critical threshold,granting them a decisive advantage in domestic struggles,the impetus for external alliances diminished,resulting in reduced alliance formations with other states.Empirical tests using an original dyad dataset of alliances among China's Spring and Autumn Period feudal states support the proposed hypotheses,contributing to our understanding of how domestic political struggles shape inter-state alliance behavior.
作者
蒙克
董琦圆
Meng Ke;Dong Qiyuan(the School of Public Policy and Management,Tsinghua University)
出处
《世界经济与政治》
CSSCI
北大核心
2023年第8期2-28,163,164,共29页
World Economics and Politics
基金
清华大学公共管理学院基础研究种子基金(项目批准号:2022JCZZ004)的阶段性成果。
关键词
国际等级制
国家间联盟
选举人理论
致胜联盟
中国春秋时期
international hierarchy
interstate alliance
selectorate theory
winning coalition
Spring and Autumn Period
