摘要
近年来,我国人口出生率持续降低,人口红利期接近尾声,人口收缩现象在县域尺度上日趋明显。文章以“六普”“七普”数据为支撑,通过常住人口、劳动年龄人口等指标构建测度指数对我国县域的人口收缩状况进行考察,分析人口收缩的空间格局,并结合空间杜宾模型分析影响收缩的相关因素。结果表明:①2010—2020年,常住人口收缩县域占比约53%,超70%的县域出现劳动年龄人口不同程度的减少,超96%的县域劳动年龄人口增长率少于常住人口增长率。②从空间视角来看,东北三省、山西等是我国常住人口收缩县域集中分布的地区,保持人口增长的县域主要集中在浙江、西藏、新疆等地。天津、北京、上海、江苏等为代表的一些东部发达地区同样面临劳动年龄人口收缩问题。③影响我国县域人口收缩的因素非常复杂,经济发展水平、产业结构、出生率、地理位置、教育水平与行政等级都显著影响了县域人口收缩。
In recent years,the birth rate of Chinese population continues to decrease,the demographic dividend period is coming to an end,and the population contraction phenomenon becomes more and more obvious at the county level.Based on the data of 6th National Census and 7th National Census,this paper constructs the measurement index of permanent population and working-age population to investigate the situation of population contraction at the county level,analyzes the spatial pattern of population contraction,and explores the related factors affecting the population contraction by using the spatial Durbin model.The results show that:1)In 2010-2020,the decrease of permanent population accounted for about 53%at the county level,over 70%of the counties(districts)showed a decrease of working-age population to some extents,and over 96%of the counties(districts)showed a growth rate of working-age population less than that of the permanent population.2)From the perspective of space,the three provinces of Northeast China and Shanxi are concentrated in the counties where the permanent population is shrinking,while the counties that maintain population growth are mainly concentrated in Zhejiang Province,Tibet Autonomous Region and Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region.Some developed eastern regions,such as Tianjin,Beijing,Shanghai and Jiangsu,are also facing shrinking working-age populations.3)The factors affecting the county population contraction are very complicated.Economic development level,industrial structure,birth rate,geographical position,education level and administrative level all affect the county population contraction significantly.
作者
张旭亮
周思敏
ZHANG Xuliang;ZHOU Simi(Center for Research of Private Economy,Zhejiang University,Hangzhou 310000,Zhejiang,China;Research Center for Regional Coordinated Development,Zhejiang University,Hangzhou 310000,Zhejiang,China;Economics Institute,Zhejiang University of Technology,Hangzhou 310000,Zhejiang,China)
出处
《经济地理》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2023年第7期42-51,98,共11页
Economic Geography
基金
教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目(22JJD790071)。
关键词
人口收缩
人口流失
常住人口
劳动年龄人口
县域单元
空间格局
空间杜宾模型
population shrinkage
population loss
permanent population
working-age population
county unit
spatial pattern
spatial Durbin model(SDM
