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综合气候和土地利用变化协同效应的玉米产量估算——以中国吉林省为例

Estimation of maize yield incorporating the synergistic effect of climatic and land use change in Jilin,China
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摘要 Yield forecasting can give early warning of food risks and provide solid support for food security planning.Climate change and land use change have direct influence on regional yield and planting area of maize,but few studies have examined their synergistic impact on maize production.In this study,we propose an analysis framework based on the integration of system dynamic(SD),future land use simulation(FLUS)and a statistical crop model to prefuture maize yield variation in response to climate change and land use change in a region of central Jilin province,China.The results show that the cultivated land is likely to reduce by 862.84 km^(2) from 2030 to 2050.Nevertheless,the total maize yield is expected to increase under all four RCP scenarios due to the promotion of per hectare maize yield.the scenarios,RCP4.5 is the most beneficial to maize production,with a doubled total yield in 2050.Notably,the yield gap between different counties will be further widened,which necessitates the differentiated policies of agricultural production and farmland protection,e.g.,strengthening cultivated land protection and crop management in low-yield areas,and taking adaptation and mitigation measures to coordinate climate change and production.
作者 文心远 刘殿锋 邱明丽 王寅杰 牛继强 刘耀林 WEN Xinyuan;LIU Dianfeng;QIU Mingli;WANG Yinjie;NIU Jiqiang;LIU Yaolin(School of Resources and Environmental Sciences,Wuhan University,Wuhan 400072,China;Key Laboratory of Digital Cartography and Land Information Application Engineering,Ministry of Natural Resources,Wuhan 430072,China;Key Laboratory for Synergistic Prevention of Water and Soil Environmental Pollution,Xinyang Normal Uni-versity,Xinyang 464000,Henan,China)
出处 《Journal of Geographical Sciences》 SCIE CSCD 2023年第8期1725-1746,共22页 地理学报(英文版)
基金 National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.42171414,No.41771429 The Open Fund of Key Laboratory for Synergistic Prevention of Water and Soil Environmental Pollution,No.KLSPWSEP-A02。
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