摘要
基于山东省29个气象站1951—2017年的实测气象数据,主要采用降水量距平百分率作为气象干旱等级评价指标,通过云模型分析山东省干旱时空分布的均匀性和稳定性特征,并采用ArcGIS的反距离权重法分析不同时间尺度下的干旱频次空间分布特征。结果表明:山东省降水量距平百分率呈逐年波动式下降趋势,但下降趋势不明显,干旱发生具有明显的季节性,呈现出季节性连旱现象;从时间尺度来看,年尺度上干旱分布的模糊性和随机性较小,干旱的确定性更容易度量,干旱分布不均匀性的稳定程度较低;对季节间云数字特征的对比显示,多年来冬、秋季干旱分布的模糊性和随机性较大,冬季干旱分布的确定性最难以度量;在稳定性方面秋季最稳定,春季次之,夏季最不稳定;在空间尺度上,鲁西北地区发生干旱、严重干旱和特大干旱的频次最高;发生轻度干旱的频次最高区位于胶东半岛,鲁南地区次之;发生中度干旱的频次最高区位于鲁中地区,鲁南地区次之;由超熵值大小判定干旱分布不均匀性的稳定程度,表现为鲁西北地区最稳定,鲁中地区次之,胶东半岛最不稳定;从干旱分布的均匀性分析得出鲁西南地区干旱分布最不均匀,鲁西北地区干旱分布最均衡;山东省干旱频次在空间上的分布表现为春旱和冬旱呈从西北向东南递减的趋势,秋旱比较严重。云模型针对半湿润地区的干旱分布具有较好的应用前景。
With the acceleration of global warming and frequent occurrence of agricultural natural disasters,drought has become an important restrictive factor for agricultural production in Shandong Province and has caused huge losses to agriculture.As an important region of the national ecological protection and high-quality development strategy in the Yellow River basin,the high-quality development of ecological agriculture is particularly important in Shandong Province,and drought is one of the limiting factors affecting the high-quality development of ecological agriculture.So the study of drought is becoming more and more important.In recent years,there have been more and more research on extreme drought monitoring,risk assessment models and systems,and a variety of meteorological hydrological drought index models have been widely used.The precipitation anomaly percentage model is superior to the other drought index models because it can directly reflect the drought caused by precipitation.Although some research has been conducted in recent years on temporal-spatial drought distribution,there are few researches on the fuzziness,randomness and unevenness of drought distribution.Based on the measured data of meteorological data from 1951 to 2017 in 29 meteorological stations in Shandong Province,the precipitation anomaly percentage is used as the evaluation index of meteorological drought grade,the cloud model is used to study the uniformity and stability characteristics of the drought spatial and temporal distribution in Shandong Province and the inverse distance weighting method is used to analyze the spatial distribution characteristics of drought frequency at different time scales.Results showed that:the precipitation anomaly percentage in Shandong Province shows a downward trend of fluctuation year by year,but the decreasing trend was not obvious;the occurrence of drought has obvious seasonality,showing the phenomenon of seasonal continuous drought.On the time scale,the ambiguity and randomness of the drought distribution on the annual scale are smaller than the seasonal scale,the determinism of the drought is easier to measure than the seasonal scale,and the stability of the unevenness of distribution is low;the comparison of the numerical characteristics of the inter-seasonal cloud shows that the distribution of winter and autumn droughts has been relatively vague and random over the years,and the certainty of winter drought distribution is the most difficult to measure.In terms of stability,autumn is the most stable,followed by spring,and the most unstable is summer.On the spatial scale,the frequency of drought,severe drought and extreme drought in the northwestern Shandong area is the highest;the frequency of mild drought in the Jiaodong Peninsula area is the highest,followed by the southern Shandong area;the frequency of moderate drought is the highest in middle Shandong Province,followed by south Shandong Province.The stability of drought distribution was judged by the value of superentropy,which showed that the northwest of Shandong was the most stable,the middle of Shandong was the second,and the Jiaodong Peninsula was the most unstable.Based on the analysis of the uniformity of drought distribution,it is concluded that the drought distribution in southwest Shandong is the most uneven,and that the drought distribution in northwest Shandong is the most balanced.The spatial distribution of drought frequency in Shandong Province showed that spring drought and winter drought decreased from northwest to southeast,and autumn drought was more serious.The cloud model has a good application prospect for drought distribution in subhumid area.
作者
崔素芳
张保祥
荣燕妮
姜欣
王振
刘振
付军
CUI Sufang;ZHANG Baoxiang;RONG Yanni;JIANG Xin;WANG Zhen;LIU Zhen;FU Jun(Shandong Agriculture and Engineering University,Jinan 250100,China;Water Resources Research Institute of Shandong Province,Jinan 250014,China)
出处
《南水北调与水利科技（中英文）》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2023年第4期679-688,共10页
South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science & Technology
基金
山东省教育厅项目(J17KB040)
国家级大学生创新创业训练项目(201914439006)
山东省重点研发计划(公益类专项)项目(2017GSF20101)。
关键词
干旱
降水量距平百分率
均匀性
稳定性
云模型
drought
precipitation anomaly percentage
homogeneity
stability
cloud model
