摘要
【目的】全球气候变暖背景下极端气候事件频发,为诊断气候变化环境下四川省极端气温事件的动态演变特征,【方法】基于1969—2019年四川省33个国家地面气象观测站逐日最高和最低气温资料,利用线性倾向估计法、反距离加权法和Mann-Kendall突变检验法分析了四川省近50 a极端气温事件的时空变化特征,并探讨了海拔高度等因子对各极端气温指数的影响。【结果】结果显示:四川省极端气温事件存在明显的年际变化和空间分布特征,海拔高度为影响四川省极端气温指数的最主要影响因子。【结论】结果表明:(1)四川省极端暖事件显著增加,极端冷事件显著减少;极端气温指数中霜冻日数、冷日指数和冷夜指数均未检测到突变点,其余指数存在明显突变。(2)受复杂地形影响,四川省极端气温存在明显空间差异,位于低海拔地区的叙永为年内日最高气温值最大、高温日数出现最多的地区;高海拔地区的红原为年内日最低气温值最低的地区,色达为霜冻日数出现最多的地区,巴塘为暖日和暖夜日数最少的地区,若尔盖为冷日和冷夜日数最多的地区。(3)经度、海拔高度和平均气温均会影响极端气温指数,而海拔高度为极端气温指数的最主要影响因子,极端暖指数由低海拔区向高海拔区递减,而极端冷指数由高海拔区向低海拔区递减。上述结果为制定合理的灾害减缓措施提供了科学依据。
[Objective]In order to diagnose the dynamic evolution characteristics of extreme temperature events in Sichuan Province in the context of global warming,[Methods]we analyze the spatial and temporal characteristics of extreme temperature events in Sichuan Province in the last 50a using linear propensity estimation method,inverse distance weighting method and Mann-Kendall mutation test,based on the daily maximum and minimum temperature data from 33 national surface meteorological observation stations in Sichuan Province from 1969 to 2019,and explore the influence of factors such as altitude on each extreme temperature index.[Results]There are obvious interannual variations and spatial distribution characteristics of extreme temperature events in Sichuan Province,and altitude is the most influential factor affecting the extreme temperature index in Sichuan Province.[Conclusion](1)The number of extreme warm events increases significantly and the number of extreme cold events decreases significantly in Sichuan Province.No mutation points are detected in the number of frost days,cold day index and cold night index among the extreme temperature indices,while the remaining indices have significant mutations.(2)Due to the complex topography,there are obvious spatial differences in the extreme temperatures in Sichuan Province,with Xuyong at low altitude being the area with the highest daily maximum temperature value and the highest number of high temperature days.Hongyuan at high altitude is the area with the lowest daily minimum temperature value,Seda is the area with the highest number of frost days,Batang is the area with the lowest number of warm days and warm nights,and Ruoerge is the area with the highest number of cold days and cold nights.(3)Longitude,altitude and average temperature affect the extreme temperature index,while altitude is the most influential factor of the extreme temperature index.The extreme warm index decreases from low to high altitude areas,while the extreme cold index decreases from high to low altitude areas.The above results provide a scientific basis for the formulation of reasonable disaster mitigation measures.
作者
孙文慧
韩琳
刘雪宇
SUN Wenhui;HAN Lin;LIU Xueyu(School of Atmospheric Sciences,Chengdu University of Information Technology,Chengdu 610225,Sichuan,China;Meteorological Bureau of Haidong City,Haidong 810600,Qinghai,China;State Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Physics and Atmospheric Chemistry,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029,China;Zhangye Meteorological Bureau of Gansu Province,Zhangye 734000,Gansu,China)
出处
《水利水电技术（中英文）》
北大核心
2023年第7期113-127,共15页
Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(4101075)。
关键词
四川省
极端气温
时空变化
突变检验
全球变暖
Sichuan Province
temperature extremes
spatial and temporal variation
sudden change test
global warming
