摘要
为探究地铁站抗涝韧性因子之间的关系,提升地铁站的抗涝韧性,系统分析地铁站抗涝韧性影响因子间的重要程度及层级关系。以近年我国发生的地铁站内涝灾害事故案例为基础,基于韧性的概念,结合技术组织社会经济(Technical-Organizational-Social-Economic,TOSE)模型识别地铁站抗涝韧性影响因素,通过Delphi法确定22个影响因素;采用矩阵决策实验室分析法(Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory,DEMATEL)研究因素之间的相互影响关系,计算不同因素的重要程度,将因素聚集为强驱动集、弱驱动集;利用偏序规则,将对抗解释结构模型法(Adversarial Interpretative Structural Modeling method,AISM)与DEMATEL联系,构建地铁站抗涝韧性影响因素的多级递阶层次模型,分析韧性影响因素间的综合影响关系。结果表明:地铁站抗涝韧性影响因素分为直接、过渡与根源3类因素;水位监测与预警技术智能化、防洪专项应急预案完善度、应急响应速度、车站管理人员风险意识、排水设施性能、安全教育培训力度、灾害经验总结情况、安全资金投入是地铁站抗涝韧性的关键影响因素。
This paper is to improve the anti-waterlogging toughness of subway stations and systematically analyze the importance and hierarchical relationship among the influencing factors of anti-waterlogging toughness of subway stations.Based on the cases of waterlogging accidents in subway stations in recent years,according to the concept of toughness,combined with Technical-Organizational-Social-Economic(TOSE)method,the influencing factors of anti-waterlogging toughness of subway stations are identified from accident investigation reports,relevant design codes,and other documents.The Delphi method is used to determine the factors affecting the waterlogging resilience of 22 subway stations.The influence degree,affected degree,center degree,and cause degree of different factors were calculated by a Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory(DEMATEL)method.The scatter diagram of the“center degree-cause degree”is drawn and each factor is summarized and divided into a strong driver set and a weak driver set.By using the partial order rule,the decision matrix constructed by influence degree and affected degree is transformed into a relation matrix.The Adversarial Interpretative Structural Modeling Method(AISM)and DEMATEL methods are linked,the reachability matrix is calculated,and the hierarchy is divided by the principle of result priority and cause priority,respectively,to construct a multi-level recursive model of the influencing factors of the resilience of subway stations against flooding and analyze the comprehensive relationship among the influencing factors.The results show that the influencing factors of waterlogging resilience of subway stations can be divided into three categories:direct influencing factors,transitional influencing factors,and fundamental influencing factors.The key influences of the resilience of subway stations to waterlogging factor includes the intelligence of water level monitoring and early warning technology,the perfection of special emergency plans for flood control,the speed of emergency response,the risk awareness of station managers,the performance of drainage facilities,the intensity of safety education and training,the summary of disaster experience,and the investment of safety funds.
作者
李华
乔峥元
LI Hua;QIAO Zheng-yuan(School of Resources Engineering,Xi'an University of Architecture and Technology,Xi'an 710055,China)
出处
《安全与环境学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2023年第5期1457-1464,共8页
Journal of Safety and Environment
基金
陕西省应急管理课题研究项目(20YJ-12)。
