摘要
为了对船舶等复杂场所的火灾场景进行量化评级,提出了一种基于起火可能性与火灾严重度的船舶火灾场景综合风险评估方法。首先,基于模糊理论和优化后的专家打分的事故树模型将权重值转换为模糊故障率,获得起火可能性;其次,利用B-RISK区域模型模拟火灾发生及蔓延扩大的进程,进而获得火灾严重度;再次,基于以上结果,运用风险值理论,对具体火灾场景进行了综合风险评级;最后,通过实例验证该方法的有效性。
In order to quantitatively rate fire scenarios in complex places such as ships,a comprehensive risk assessment method for ship fire scenarios based on fire initiation likelihood and fire severity is proposed.Firstly,an accident tree model based on fuzzy theory and optimised expert scoring converts the weight values into fuzzy failure rates to obtain the fire probability;secondly,the B-RISK area model is used to simulate the process of fire occurrence and spread expansion,and thus obtains the fire severity;thirdly,based on the above results,a comprehensive risk rating for a specific fire scenario is applied using the value-at-risk theory;finally,the validity of the method is verified by example.
作者
金艺洋
夏杰
黄卫刚
南帅
肖飞
李开源
JIN Yiyang;XIA Jie;HUANG Weigang;NAN Shuai;XIAO Fei;LI Kaiyuan(School of Safety Science and Emergency Management,Wuhan University of Technology,Wuhan 430070,China.;不详)
出处
《武汉理工大学学报（信息与管理工程版）》
2023年第1期54-60,共7页
Journal of Wuhan University of Technology：Information & Management Engineering
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(51876148).
关键词
船舶火灾
风险评估
事故树
层次分析法
模糊理论
ship fire
risk rating
accident tree
hierarchical analysis process
fuzzy theory
