摘要
“一带一路”倡议的深耕细作成功促进中国与沿线国家的农产品贸易额与贸易量的不断提升。乌兹别克斯坦农业资源丰富,地理位置优越,进一步深化中乌农产品贸易,对拓展双边农业合作空间和潜力,优化资源配置具有重要的意义。中乌农产品贸易总额稳中有增但贸易地位有所降低,中国对乌茶类、水果蔬菜和油籽等农产品出口增速明显,棉花在中乌贸易中仍占据重要地位。通过构建贸易引力模型,利用2011—2020年中国与丝绸之路经济带核心区和重要区11个国家的数据进行研究,结果表明:中乌贸易潜力经历了潜力再造型到潜力开拓型,再到潜力巨大型的转变,其中,水果蔬菜类和糖类产品贸易状况逐步变好,杂类食品和棉花贸易潜力提升空间逐步增大。但是,目前中乌农产品贸易仍然面临经济发展韧性不足与物流绩效不高的双面叠加,农产品贸易结构单一与贸易优势减弱的双向传导,贸易壁垒长期存在与贸易成本上升的双重制约困境,应依托多边合作机制框架,加强棉花产业链合作,创新合作模式,以加强互联互通,提升贸易便利化,提高农产品国际竞争力。
The Belt and Road initiative has successfully promoted the continuous improvement of agricultural trade volume and trade volume between China and the countries along the Belt and Road.Uzbekistan is rich in agricultural resources and enjoys a superior geographical location.Further deepening the trade of agricultural products between China and Uzbekistan is of great significance for expanding the space and potential of bilateral agricultural cooperation and optimizing the allocation of resources.The total trade volume of agricultural products between China and Uzbekistan has increased steadily,but the trade status has decreased.China’s exports of agricultural products such as tea,fruits,vegetables and oilseeds to Uzbekistan have increased significantly,and cotton still plays an important role in the trade between China and Uzbekistan.By constructing a trade gravity model and using the data of 11 countries in the core and important regions of China and the Silk Road Economic Belt from 2011 to 2020,the results show that the trade potential of China and Uzbekistan has undergone a transformation from potential re-modeling to potential pioneering,and then to a huge potential model.Among them,the trade status of fruits,vegetables and sugar products has gradually improved,and the trade potential of miscellaneous food and cotton has gradually increased.However,at present,the agricultural trade between China and Uzbekistan has suffered from the double-sided overlapping of insufficient economic resilience and low logistics performance,the two-way transmission of the single agricultural trade structure and the weakening trade advantage,and the dual constraints of the long-term existence of trade barriers and the increase of trade costs.We should strengthen cooperation on the cotton industry chain and innovate cooperation models based on multilateral cooperation mechanism framework,so as to improve connectivity,enhance trade facilitation and promote the international competitiveness of agricultural products.
作者
邓羽佳
张广鑫
DENG Yu-jia;ZHANG Guang-xin(College of Economics and Management,Xinjiang Agricultural University,Urumqi,Xinjiang 830052;Postdoctoral Station of Agricultural and Forestry EconomicManagement,Xinjiang Agricultural University,Urumqi,Xinjiang 830052)
出处
《价格月刊》
北大核心
2023年第4期63-72,共10页
基金
中国博士后科学基金“中乌棉花产业合作的资本融合模式研究”(编号:2018M643824XB)
新疆维吾尔自治区社会科学基金项目“‘双循环’视角下的新疆外贸高质量发展:新动力、新困境与新路径”(编号:20BJL057)
新疆维吾尔自治区科技厅自然科学基金项目“外贸高质量发展与‘双循环’耦合的动力、障碍及其优化路径研究”(编号:2021D01B51)。
关键词
丝绸之路经济带
农产品贸易
贸易潜力
Silk Road Economic Belt
agricultural trade
trade potential
