摘要
森林火灾的频繁发生严重破坏了林业资源和生态系统安全。为实现对我国森林火灾风险的科学评估,基于我国森林火灾风险因素的复杂特征,从经济水平、自然环境、管理水平、防火投入和历史灾情5个维度选取26个基本指标构建森林火灾风险评估体系。鉴于组合赋权法的优势,将纵横向拉开档次法(VHSD)与熵值赋权法(EM)相结合,构建加权VHSD-EM模型,将影响森林火灾发生的时间因素和个体信息量同时纳入评估过程中,确定森林火灾风险指数。结果表明,加权VHSD-EM模型在森林火灾风险评估方面具有良好的适用性,模型的稳健性良好,实用价值较高;内蒙古、四川和山西等地区仍面临较高的森林火灾风险。本研究的开展为从时间维度评估森林火灾提供了一种新思路。
Frequent occurrence of forest fires has seriously damaged security of forest resources and ecosystems.In order to realize scientific assessment of forest fire risk in China,based on complex characteristics of forest fire risk factors in China,26 basic indicators from 5 dimensions of economic level,natural environment,management level,fire protection investment and historical disasters were selected to build a forest fire risk assessment system.In view of advantages of combined weighting method,vertical and horizontal scatter degree method(VHSD)and entropy method(EM)were combined to build a VHSD-EM model,which took time factors and individual information that affecting occurrence of forest fires into evaluation process,and then confirmed forest fire risk indexes.Results showed that weighted VHSD-EM model had good applicability in forest fire risk assessment,good robustness,and strong practical value.Inner Mongolia,Sichuan and Shanxi still faced high forest fire risk.The development of this study provided a new way to evaluate forest fires from time dimension.
作者
王亚男
李勇
陈飞飞
王新建
Wang Yanan;Li Yong;Chen Feifei;Wang Xinjian(Foundation Department,China Fire and Rescue Institute,Beijing 102202,China;Department of Fire Engineering,China Fire and Rescue Institute,Beijing 102202,China;Harbin Detachment of Heilongjiang Forest Fire Brigade,Harbin,Heilongjiang 150028,China)
出处
《广西林业科学》
2022年第6期853-858,共6页
Guangxi Forestry Science
基金
中国消防救援学院院级科研项目(XFKYB202211)
中国消防救援学院院级教改项目(YJYB2022009)。
